$AVAX from 7.17 all the way up to 12.007, and now we're back around 11.1. On the surface it looks like a spike-and-retrace, but there’s a detail in the contract data that I think is more worth looking at than the price itself.
First, the data. This pullback’s structure has changed:
The long/short accounts increased from 1.51 straight to 2.95, and retail longs have clearly grown.
But open interest (OI) dropped from 25.57M to 20.75M, meaning positions are being pulled out.
The funding rate has been sticking close to the zero line, occasionally turning negative, so sentiment isn’t hot.
Trading volume also hasn’t expanded noticeably, which suggests this decline didn’t come with panic selling.
Price is moving sideways; long accounts are surging, but the money is running—this combination usually isn’t a good sign. A high long/short ratio indicates retail is rushing in, but falling OI suggests institutions or big players are reducing positions. In this kind of structure, if price can’t quickly break through 12 with strong volume, it’s easy for it to first sweep downward and shake out highly leveraged longs.
Right now I only watch two areas:
Above: 11.40–11.50 is short-term resistance, and 12.00 is strong resistance. Only if it holds above 12 on volume can we say a new trend is really starting.
Below: 10.76 is short-term support, 10.40 is strong support, and 9.50 is the final line of defense.
If 10.76 is tested and OI keeps falling, that could mean longs are exiting—then it might wash out and still be able to go up. But if price drops while OI instead rises, that would mean shorts are adding positions, and you should be careful about an accelerated selloff. These two outcomes lead to completely different conclusions.
My plan is: wait for a pullback near 10.76, with volume shrinking and selling stopping, and for OI to stop declining. Then I’ll consider a light entry. Or if it breaks above 12 with volume, then after a pullback and confirmation, I’ll follow. In this middle zone, I’d rather skip one trade than guess.
Do you think 12 will break, or will 10.76 be broken first?
#AVAX #trading $AVAX
Personal review only; not investment advice
First, the data. This pullback’s structure has changed:
The long/short accounts increased from 1.51 straight to 2.95, and retail longs have clearly grown.
But open interest (OI) dropped from 25.57M to 20.75M, meaning positions are being pulled out.
The funding rate has been sticking close to the zero line, occasionally turning negative, so sentiment isn’t hot.
Trading volume also hasn’t expanded noticeably, which suggests this decline didn’t come with panic selling.
Price is moving sideways; long accounts are surging, but the money is running—this combination usually isn’t a good sign. A high long/short ratio indicates retail is rushing in, but falling OI suggests institutions or big players are reducing positions. In this kind of structure, if price can’t quickly break through 12 with strong volume, it’s easy for it to first sweep downward and shake out highly leveraged longs.
Right now I only watch two areas:
Above: 11.40–11.50 is short-term resistance, and 12.00 is strong resistance. Only if it holds above 12 on volume can we say a new trend is really starting.
Below: 10.76 is short-term support, 10.40 is strong support, and 9.50 is the final line of defense.
If 10.76 is tested and OI keeps falling, that could mean longs are exiting—then it might wash out and still be able to go up. But if price drops while OI instead rises, that would mean shorts are adding positions, and you should be careful about an accelerated selloff. These two outcomes lead to completely different conclusions.
My plan is: wait for a pullback near 10.76, with volume shrinking and selling stopping, and for OI to stop declining. Then I’ll consider a light entry. Or if it breaks above 12 with volume, then after a pullback and confirmation, I’ll follow. In this middle zone, I’d rather skip one trade than guess.
Do you think 12 will break, or will 10.76 be broken first?
#AVAX #trading $AVAX
Personal review only; not investment advice
