After $ETH got smashed down from 2777, the 4H J once washed down to around 5, looking like a cleanout — yet the retail account long/short ratio rose from 2.24 24h ago to 2.88, with the washout tag and position direction moving in opposite ways.
Current price is around 2680 (about −3.5% from HH 2777). BB(20,2) middle band is 2693.7 / lower band 2651.8, %B≈0.34, sitting in the lower half of the channel; KDJ(9,3,3) J dropped from about 89 at 10/2 16:00 to about 4.8 and then rebounded to 16.7; RSI(14) on 4H is only 47.3, not oversold yet. EMA12/26≈2689/2691, with price below both and hugging EMA50 2684.5.
Structure: HH 2777 → LL 2650.88, then lows 2657→2666→2672 have been stepping higher. Resistance is around BB middle band / EMA26 at 2691–2694, then 2715/2777; support is BB lower band / LL 2651; invalidation is a 4H close below 2650.88.
Derivatives: retail L/S 2.88 (about 74% long) versus TopPos 1.58, gap −1.30; OI 24h −2.1%; average annualized funding rate is about 5.4%, near-zero at the near end, near the recent peak at 3/21; taker buy/sell≈0.90.
The momentum tag has cooled off, RSI is still neutral, but retail is pushing the long/short ratio up during the pullback — for the weekend, I’ll first watch whether this LL at 2650.88 can hold, and if it does, then we can talk about whether price can reclaim the 2694 middle band.
#ETH #行情分析 #technical analysis
Current price is around 2680 (about −3.5% from HH 2777). BB(20,2) middle band is 2693.7 / lower band 2651.8, %B≈0.34, sitting in the lower half of the channel; KDJ(9,3,3) J dropped from about 89 at 10/2 16:00 to about 4.8 and then rebounded to 16.7; RSI(14) on 4H is only 47.3, not oversold yet. EMA12/26≈2689/2691, with price below both and hugging EMA50 2684.5.
Structure: HH 2777 → LL 2650.88, then lows 2657→2666→2672 have been stepping higher. Resistance is around BB middle band / EMA26 at 2691–2694, then 2715/2777; support is BB lower band / LL 2651; invalidation is a 4H close below 2650.88.
Derivatives: retail L/S 2.88 (about 74% long) versus TopPos 1.58, gap −1.30; OI 24h −2.1%; average annualized funding rate is about 5.4%, near-zero at the near end, near the recent peak at 3/21; taker buy/sell≈0.90.
The momentum tag has cooled off, RSI is still neutral, but retail is pushing the long/short ratio up during the pullback — for the weekend, I’ll first watch whether this LL at 2650.88 can hold, and if it does, then we can talk about whether price can reclaim the 2694 middle band.
#ETH #行情分析 #technical analysis
