$BTC
The chance of the Fed raising rates in October is down to just 17%
Did the market suddenly stop being afraid of rate hikes?
Oh my god
Brothers
The Fed’s October rate-hike probability
Dropped to 17% all of a sudden
Right before that, the market was still worried the Fed might deliver another blow
But then the U.S. nonfarm payroll data came out
And it directly poured a bucket of cold water on the market
In September, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
So the CEM FedWatch shows
The probability of keeping rates unchanged in October rose to 83%
The rate-hike probability was slashed from 28% straight down to 17%
In plain terms,
U.S. employment is starting to show it can’t quite hold up
Now the Fed is in an awkward spot
If they raise rates—
They’re afraid of kicking the already cooling job market again
If they don’t—
Inflation still hasn’t fully returned to the 2% target
Even more wild is that
A few Fed officials recently have clearly not been in a rush to hike either
For the crypto market,
A cooling of rate-hike expectations means liquidity pressure is further easing
And assets are more willing to flow back into risk assets
But don’t get too excited just yet
For now,
“Not raising rates” doesn’t mean “cutting rates” immediately
The high-interest-rate environment will still last for a while
Don’t treat this as a major positive and run with it
September’s CPI
is another tough battle
#美联储10月加息概率降至17%
The chance of the Fed raising rates in October is down to just 17%
Did the market suddenly stop being afraid of rate hikes?
Oh my god
Brothers
The Fed’s October rate-hike probability
Dropped to 17% all of a sudden
Right before that, the market was still worried the Fed might deliver another blow
But then the U.S. nonfarm payroll data came out
And it directly poured a bucket of cold water on the market
In September, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
So the CEM FedWatch shows
The probability of keeping rates unchanged in October rose to 83%
The rate-hike probability was slashed from 28% straight down to 17%
In plain terms,
U.S. employment is starting to show it can’t quite hold up
Now the Fed is in an awkward spot
If they raise rates—
They’re afraid of kicking the already cooling job market again
If they don’t—
Inflation still hasn’t fully returned to the 2% target
Even more wild is that
A few Fed officials recently have clearly not been in a rush to hike either
For the crypto market,
A cooling of rate-hike expectations means liquidity pressure is further easing
And assets are more willing to flow back into risk assets
But don’t get too excited just yet
For now,
“Not raising rates” doesn’t mean “cutting rates” immediately
The high-interest-rate environment will still last for a while
Don’t treat this as a major positive and run with it
September’s CPI
is another tough battle
#美联储10月加息概率降至17%
