#美联储10月加息概率降至17%
October rate-hike odds fall to 17%, but don’t rush to call it a “turning point”
The market’s pricing for an October rate hike has already dropped to around 17%, with the probability of holding steady still close to 83%—86%.
This isn’t a sentiment reversal; it’s the data pulling traders’ expectations back into line.
What’s truly driving this repricing are two key sets of data.
First, August core PCE came in below expectations: core inflation year-on-year was 3.0%, lower than the market’s 3.3% forecast.
Then came September’s nonfarm payrolls released on October 2: new jobs added only 29,000, far below expectations of 84,000—90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%; wage growth was 3.0% year-on-year and only 0.1% month-on-month; and July and August were collectively revised down by about 60,000 jobs.
Taken together, these two batches of data suggest one thing: the labor market hasn’t collapsed, but it no longer supports a narrative that a must-immediate additional hike is required. With wage pressures easing, the urgency for the Fed to keep hiking in the near term decreases.
But there’s a detail that’s easy to overlook: pausing in October doesn’t mean the hiking cycle is over.
The market still sees December as the more likely next window. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December remains around 60%—68%.
In other words, traders are currently positioning to skip October—not to be fully safe for the rest of the year.
More importantly, there’s no unified view within the Fed. New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson have signaled a wait-and-see stance, but hawks such as Dallas Fed President Logan still believe policy needs tightening.
This means the policy path remains data-dependent.
Watch three variables:
1. October CPI/PCE: as long as inflation rebounds again, the 17% odds could quickly climb back to 40% or even higher.
2. Employment data for October—November: if jobs continue to weaken, the market will start seriously pricing “rate hikes ending within the year.”
3. Energy prices and geopolitical risk: once oil prices move back up, the inflation narrative can revive immediately.
This weak nonfarm payrolls report is a near-term positive. Treasury yields fall, and stock index futures and gold strengthen in sync after the data release.
But don’t interpret this rebound as a shift in liquidity. It’s more like a brief breathing window that the market is getting in a high-interest-rate environment.
Right now, it’s not easing—it’s a pause, not a reversal. It’s the data giving risk assets a temporary opportunity to rise.
The real direction still has to wait for the next inflation and employment reports to confirm.
$BTC
October rate-hike odds fall to 17%, but don’t rush to call it a “turning point”
The market’s pricing for an October rate hike has already dropped to around 17%, with the probability of holding steady still close to 83%—86%.
This isn’t a sentiment reversal; it’s the data pulling traders’ expectations back into line.
What’s truly driving this repricing are two key sets of data.
First, August core PCE came in below expectations: core inflation year-on-year was 3.0%, lower than the market’s 3.3% forecast.
Then came September’s nonfarm payrolls released on October 2: new jobs added only 29,000, far below expectations of 84,000—90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%; wage growth was 3.0% year-on-year and only 0.1% month-on-month; and July and August were collectively revised down by about 60,000 jobs.
Taken together, these two batches of data suggest one thing: the labor market hasn’t collapsed, but it no longer supports a narrative that a must-immediate additional hike is required. With wage pressures easing, the urgency for the Fed to keep hiking in the near term decreases.
But there’s a detail that’s easy to overlook: pausing in October doesn’t mean the hiking cycle is over.
The market still sees December as the more likely next window. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December remains around 60%—68%.
In other words, traders are currently positioning to skip October—not to be fully safe for the rest of the year.
More importantly, there’s no unified view within the Fed. New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson have signaled a wait-and-see stance, but hawks such as Dallas Fed President Logan still believe policy needs tightening.
This means the policy path remains data-dependent.
Watch three variables:
1. October CPI/PCE: as long as inflation rebounds again, the 17% odds could quickly climb back to 40% or even higher.
2. Employment data for October—November: if jobs continue to weaken, the market will start seriously pricing “rate hikes ending within the year.”
3. Energy prices and geopolitical risk: once oil prices move back up, the inflation narrative can revive immediately.
This weak nonfarm payrolls report is a near-term positive. Treasury yields fall, and stock index futures and gold strengthen in sync after the data release.
But don’t interpret this rebound as a shift in liquidity. It’s more like a brief breathing window that the market is getting in a high-interest-rate environment.
Right now, it’s not easing—it’s a pause, not a reversal. It’s the data giving risk assets a temporary opportunity to rise.
The real direction still has to wait for the next inflation and employment reports to confirm.
$BTC