$AVAX Short-term momentum is already heating up, but the 4H structure is still LH/LL—more like tags leading first and the trend not keeping up.
Current price is about 11.10 (24h high 11.20 / low 10.45). 4H: KDJ(9,3,3) K=67.8 / D=59.1 / J=85.3 (prior value 76.6, still rising); EMA12/26/50=10.99/10.97/10.82. EMA12 has just crossed above EMA26, but the price spread is only +0.019. MACD(12,26,9): DIF=+0.019 / DEA=+0.023 / Histogram −0.004 (prior value −0.015; the negative histogram is shrinking, but not yet flipped positive). RSI(14)=53.5—nowhere near overbought.
Futures: Large-holder positioning ratio 2.76→2.61, retail 2.65→2.48—both sides are cooling down together. OI quantity: 24h −1.7%, 7d −3.6%. Funding rate is near the cap (around 10/21); latest is +0.01% annualized, about 11%. In the last 1h, the aggressive buy/sell ratio is 0.54—sell orders are heavier.
Structure is still LH/LL: highs 12.01→11.37→11.27, lows 10.80→10.73→10.45. Resistance to watch first: 11.27/11.37. Support: 10.73/10.45. Invalidation: if the 4H closes below 10.45.
J is hot and the moving averages have just flipped bullish, but the momentum histogram is still negative and open interest is falling. For the weekend, I’ll first see whether this LH at 11.27 can genuinely turn into an HH—if it can’t, then it’s still just a rebound tag.
#AVAX #行情分析 #Technical Analysis
Current price is about 11.10 (24h high 11.20 / low 10.45). 4H: KDJ(9,3,3) K=67.8 / D=59.1 / J=85.3 (prior value 76.6, still rising); EMA12/26/50=10.99/10.97/10.82. EMA12 has just crossed above EMA26, but the price spread is only +0.019. MACD(12,26,9): DIF=+0.019 / DEA=+0.023 / Histogram −0.004 (prior value −0.015; the negative histogram is shrinking, but not yet flipped positive). RSI(14)=53.5—nowhere near overbought.
Futures: Large-holder positioning ratio 2.76→2.61, retail 2.65→2.48—both sides are cooling down together. OI quantity: 24h −1.7%, 7d −3.6%. Funding rate is near the cap (around 10/21); latest is +0.01% annualized, about 11%. In the last 1h, the aggressive buy/sell ratio is 0.54—sell orders are heavier.
Structure is still LH/LL: highs 12.01→11.37→11.27, lows 10.80→10.73→10.45. Resistance to watch first: 11.27/11.37. Support: 10.73/10.45. Invalidation: if the 4H closes below 10.45.
J is hot and the moving averages have just flipped bullish, but the momentum histogram is still negative and open interest is falling. For the weekend, I’ll first see whether this LH at 11.27 can genuinely turn into an HH—if it can’t, then it’s still just a rebound tag.
#AVAX #行情分析 #Technical Analysis
