According to CNBC, Wall Street is weighing sharply different market outcomes ahead of Brazil's first-round presidential election Sunday, with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva facing Flavio Bolsonaro in a close race and a runoff set for Oct. 25 if no candidate tops 50% of the vote. JPMorgan said Brazilian stocks have already risen alongside Bolsonaro's improving poll numbers, while Kalshi markets show Bolsonaro favored 60% to Lula's 39%. The bank said a Bolsonaro victory could lift bonds, the currency and equities, and it put USD/BRL at 5.50 if Lula wins and 4.90 if Bolsonaro wins. JPMorgan also said MSCI Brazil could have upside potential of 21% to 41% if reform momentum returns, while Citi's Brazil head economist Leonardo Porto said the country needs a 3% to 3.5% fiscal adjustment to stabilize debt.