#美联储10月加息概率降至17% : A CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate hike in October has fallen to 17%. The major driver behind the sharp weakening in September’s nonfarm payrolls is that markets generally expect that rates will be kept unchanged in October.
Bullish factors:
1. Expectations for a rate hike have dropped sharply. U.S. Treasury yields are under pressure and have fallen, reducing the discounting pressure on risk assets and benefiting stocks and crypto assets.
2. Concerns over liquidity have eased. Risk appetite has improved, which is favorable for BTC, ETH, and altcoin sectors.
Bearish factors:
3. The probability is based only on market futures pricing. If CPI and PCE data rebound, rate-hike expectations could quickly rise again.
4. Pausing a rate hike does not mean a rate cut. The high-rate environment remains in place, with no additional easing.
Outlook: In the short term, risk assets face more upside. The sustainability of the rally depends on subsequent inflation data; focus on tracking the CPI release.
Bullish factors:
1. Expectations for a rate hike have dropped sharply. U.S. Treasury yields are under pressure and have fallen, reducing the discounting pressure on risk assets and benefiting stocks and crypto assets.
2. Concerns over liquidity have eased. Risk appetite has improved, which is favorable for BTC, ETH, and altcoin sectors.
Bearish factors:
3. The probability is based only on market futures pricing. If CPI and PCE data rebound, rate-hike expectations could quickly rise again.
4. Pausing a rate hike does not mean a rate cut. The high-rate environment remains in place, with no additional easing.
Outlook: In the short term, risk assets face more upside. The sustainability of the rally depends on subsequent inflation data; focus on tracking the CPI release.