#美联储10月加息概率降至17%
👉 加息预期怎么看，币安聊天室跟进
In September, the non-farm payrolls only increased by 29,000.
The market had originally been expecting more than 80,000.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
The combined revisions for July and August were also cut by 60,000 jobs.
Wages year-on-year increased by only 3.0%.
This data drains the confidence behind more rate hikes.
The probability of a cme rate hike in October fell from 36% to 17%.
A week ago, more than sixty percent were still betting on a rate hike.
Now, holding rates steady has become the mainstream bet.
The market moved first.
The US dollar pulled back, and equity index futures jumped.
Bitcoin surged on the momentum, then dropped again.
Some of the positives were priced in early.
Weak data doesn’t mean the trend is stable.
The next referee is the cpi in mid-October.
Until then, all bets are just drafts.
What the market is betting on is an economic slowdown, not a recession.
These two outcomes are very far apart for risk assets.
For crypto, liquidity expectations are the most direct line.
Loosen the straitjacket by one notch, and the elasticity gives you another gear.
Next week, speeches by officials still need to be watched.
They won’t let consensus hold for too long.
Do you think October will really keep rates on hold? Discuss in the comments
👉 加息预期怎么看，币安聊天室跟进
In September, the non-farm payrolls only increased by 29,000.
The market had originally been expecting more than 80,000.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
The combined revisions for July and August were also cut by 60,000 jobs.
Wages year-on-year increased by only 3.0%.
This data drains the confidence behind more rate hikes.
The probability of a cme rate hike in October fell from 36% to 17%.
A week ago, more than sixty percent were still betting on a rate hike.
Now, holding rates steady has become the mainstream bet.
The market moved first.
The US dollar pulled back, and equity index futures jumped.
Bitcoin surged on the momentum, then dropped again.
Some of the positives were priced in early.
Weak data doesn’t mean the trend is stable.
The next referee is the cpi in mid-October.
Until then, all bets are just drafts.
What the market is betting on is an economic slowdown, not a recession.
These two outcomes are very far apart for risk assets.
For crypto, liquidity expectations are the most direct line.
Loosen the straitjacket by one notch, and the elasticity gives you another gear.
Next week, speeches by officials still need to be watched.
They won’t let consensus hold for too long.
Do you think October will really keep rates on hold? Discuss in the comments
