$180 worth of AAVE—are you going to chase it?
First, look at the surface: On Oct 2 it spiked to 187.5, then today it was smashed down to 176. Around 180 it’s been grinding back and forth. Daily RSI at 72 is overbought, and ADX at 41 still shows the trend is intact. After the spike, the 4-hour chart formed a flag, followed by a pullback. 175–176 is the first daily support, 170 is the breakout start zone. The trend hasn’t broken—but don’t blindly chase in the middle.
First thing: This time the move isn’t just the coin price—it’s “ownership.”
On Oct 2, Aave Labs dropped a bombshell: it set up a Cayman exempted non-member foundation, and transferred the trademarks, domain names, and protocol IP entirely to the DAO’s name.
This is the first time in DeFi history that a major protocol has truly handed back legal ownership of core assets to token holders.
Combine that with Stani’s mentioned Aavenomics 3.0 permanent burn mechanism—if it’s implemented, that would be a nuclear-level supply narrative upgrade.
Second thing: The protocol itself is stronger than you think.
Don’t just stare at governance proposals—the fundamentals are the real ace up the sleeve:
V4 deposits first broke $1 billion, with active borrowings at $310 million.
New Arc launched, Base went live, and Coinbase tokenized stocks can be used as collateral via Equities Hub.
The official released MCP services—AI agents can directly read the protocol.
Share buybacks are still in motion: the DAO’s annual budget is $50 million; every week it buys between 250k and 1.75 million.
Circulating supply is 15.4 million, total supply 16 million; market cap is $2.5–2.8 billion.
Still about 100,000 miles short of the previous ATH of 660.
Third thing: There’s a technical signal you must watch.
On Oct 1–2, it ran from 159 to 187—an 18% move. But contract trade activity and the share of short liquidations weren’t low; futures volume at one point approached $1.1 billion.
The news is bullish, but part of the rally is from squeezing shorts.
Daily RSI 72 is already overbought. The 15-minute RSI has dropped back to 52—short-term longs are taking a break.
Trading strategy
Buy on pullbacks:
Don’t chase at 180. Prefer to wait for 176–175 to show a reversal sign—like a selloff that stops and produces a long lower wick on the chart or a 4-hour close back above—then enter in batches. Stop-loss: below 172. First target: 185. If it holds, look for 187.5 / 196. Only consider a breakout trade if it closes above 188 with volume expansion. Stop-loss: below 183. Target: 196–200.
Short-term short:
If there’s a rebound into 185–188 with strong volume and a visible upper wick, and price can’t reclaim on the 4-hour chart, consider a small-position short. Stop-loss: above 190. First targets: 176 / 175.
Invalidation conditions:
If the daily close breaks below 175 and doesn’t come back,撤退 on longs—then watch for 170 / 162. If BTC validly breaks down below 83100, AAVE’s relative strength will also get pressured, and leverage will come down.
First, look at the surface: On Oct 2 it spiked to 187.5, then today it was smashed down to 176. Around 180 it’s been grinding back and forth. Daily RSI at 72 is overbought, and ADX at 41 still shows the trend is intact. After the spike, the 4-hour chart formed a flag, followed by a pullback. 175–176 is the first daily support, 170 is the breakout start zone. The trend hasn’t broken—but don’t blindly chase in the middle.
First thing: This time the move isn’t just the coin price—it’s “ownership.”
On Oct 2, Aave Labs dropped a bombshell: it set up a Cayman exempted non-member foundation, and transferred the trademarks, domain names, and protocol IP entirely to the DAO’s name.
This is the first time in DeFi history that a major protocol has truly handed back legal ownership of core assets to token holders.
Combine that with Stani’s mentioned Aavenomics 3.0 permanent burn mechanism—if it’s implemented, that would be a nuclear-level supply narrative upgrade.
Second thing: The protocol itself is stronger than you think.
Don’t just stare at governance proposals—the fundamentals are the real ace up the sleeve:
V4 deposits first broke $1 billion, with active borrowings at $310 million.
New Arc launched, Base went live, and Coinbase tokenized stocks can be used as collateral via Equities Hub.
The official released MCP services—AI agents can directly read the protocol.
Share buybacks are still in motion: the DAO’s annual budget is $50 million; every week it buys between 250k and 1.75 million.
Circulating supply is 15.4 million, total supply 16 million; market cap is $2.5–2.8 billion.
Still about 100,000 miles short of the previous ATH of 660.
Third thing: There’s a technical signal you must watch.
On Oct 1–2, it ran from 159 to 187—an 18% move. But contract trade activity and the share of short liquidations weren’t low; futures volume at one point approached $1.1 billion.
The news is bullish, but part of the rally is from squeezing shorts.
Daily RSI 72 is already overbought. The 15-minute RSI has dropped back to 52—short-term longs are taking a break.
Trading strategy
Buy on pullbacks:
Don’t chase at 180. Prefer to wait for 176–175 to show a reversal sign—like a selloff that stops and produces a long lower wick on the chart or a 4-hour close back above—then enter in batches. Stop-loss: below 172. First target: 185. If it holds, look for 187.5 / 196. Only consider a breakout trade if it closes above 188 with volume expansion. Stop-loss: below 183. Target: 196–200.
Short-term short:
If there’s a rebound into 185–188 with strong volume and a visible upper wick, and price can’t reclaim on the 4-hour chart, consider a small-position short. Stop-loss: above 190. First targets: 176 / 175.
Invalidation conditions:
If the daily close breaks below 175 and doesn’t come back,撤退 on longs—then watch for 170 / 162. If BTC validly breaks down below 83100, AAVE’s relative strength will also get pressured, and leverage will come down.
