The following are only my personal views and opinions. If anything is incorrect, please point it out $BTC #比特币涨至8.65万美元后回落
1. Recent market situation: after surging high, it pulled back, getting stuck in a dense order-flow/position cluster zone
2. Four reasons for the rise
1. ETF fund flows reversed from net outflow to net inflow (most important): As of the week of September 25, net inflows were $2.39 billion, the largest single week in 2026 and the strongest since October 2025. It is the first time cumulative full-year inflows turned positive (about +$930 million; it was still down $5.5 billion at the start of July). Net inflows for September were about $2.65 billion. On October 1, there was another net inflow of $103 million.
2. Cooling rate-hike expectations: The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25bp on September 16 to 3.75%–4.00% (the first hike since July 2023), but the September nonfarm report released on October 2 added only 29,000 jobs—far below expectations. As a result, the market’s probability of another rate hike on October 28 fell from 70%+ to around 50%, giving risk assets some breathing room.
3. A clean structure after short covering + leverage unwinding: in late September, open interest in futures fell from over 700,000 contracts to 644,000 (a drop of 49,000 contracts in 7 days, the largest decline since Oct 2025). In recent price advances, about $120 million of short positions was liquidated, while total market liquidations were only about $210 million—completely different from the chain-reaction structure of the $19 billion cascade liquidation on Oct 10, 2025.
4. Chips and institutional behavior: wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC increased by 41,025 BTC within 10 days, accounting for 67.9% of total supply; Citigroup raised its 12-month target price from 82,000 to $113,000.
Third, three reasons suppressing the rise
84,000–86,500 is the real supply wall: on-chain, about 1.39 million BTC costs are concentrated there. Holding above 85,000 would turn 760,000 BTC into floating profit, and sell pressure from breakeven/unwinding would follow.
U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated: by the end of September, the 10-year yield was 5.289% and the 30-year yield was 5.632%, both at new 52-week highs (the 10-year is at a level not seen since 2007). The carrying cost of non-interest-bearing assets has been significantly raised; the Ministry of Finance has piled up cash to about $1.05 trillion by the end of October, meaning liquidity has been drained.
Doubts about the quality of ETF inflows: in the week of Sep 25, 72% of inflows were concentrated over just two days, and on Sep 21, a substantial portion of the $999 million single-day amount appears to have been driven by a short squeeze. By Sep 26 it had already decayed to $134.5 million, and by Sep 30 it turned to -$148.7 million, interrupting a nine-day streak of green candles. Bitfinex estimates that the multiplier for ETFs absorbing miners’ new production dropped sharply from 25.6x to 1.8x (to maintain a bull market, it needs roughly 5x).
Fourth, scenario walkthrough (describing only conditions, not making forecasts)
Bullish: ETF flows recover to stable net inflows above $150–200 million per day + U.S. Treasury yields fall back below 5% → should be able to effectively digest supply above 86,500, with tests of 88,000–90,000 in sight.
Neutral (relatively higher probability): ranging between 82,000–87,000, waiting for the initial jobless claims on Oct 8, followed by subsequent inflation data and the FOMC meeting on Oct 28 to set the direction.
Bearish: ETFs shift to sustained outflows + yields continue to rise + a break below 82,000 → covering back to 77,000 or even lower. The main logic for 2026—"high interest rates + shrinking liquidity"—has returned to dominate.
Risk warning: The above data come from publicly available market information and media reports; different data sources may quote different figures. Please refer to the live order book of the exchange you use. This article is for information collation and analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are extremely volatile, and participation in virtual-crypto trading-related activities in mainland China is not legally protected; losses are self-borne. Please strictly control your position sizing and risk.#BTC走势分析 
