The odds of a rate hike have fallen, so why can’t BTC break higher?
🚨 A very unusual signal is emerging in the market:
U.S. employment is cooling noticeably, and the odds of a Fed rate hike in October have dropped sharply.
Based on past patterns, this should have been a clear positive for BTC.
But even after a surge, BTC still hasn’t managed to break out and gain real upside momentum.
Why?
Because what’s really weighing on the market may no longer be whether the Fed will raise rates.
It may be—Treasury yields.
📉 The labor market is cooling 🟢 Expectations for an October rate hike have fallen sharply 💰 Institutional investors are still watching BTC 🔴 But long-term Treasury yields remain high
That’s the biggest contradiction right now:
Expectations for monetary policy are shifting toward easing, but the market’s actual cost of capital hasn’t come down yet.
So what BTC really needs next may be more than just “no rate hike.”
It needs Treasury yields to actually start falling.
If yields turn lower, pressure on risk assets could ease quickly.
But if yields keep climbing—
Even with buyers stepping in, BTC could still struggle to move higher.
So there’s just one variable I’m watching next:
Treasury yields.
🟢 Liquidity starts flowing back in 🔴 High yields keep weighing on BTC
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$BNB Here’s a basic overview of the crypto market for everyone:
1. If you want to control risk as much as possible and achieve stable profits in the crypto world, first focus on the top-cap coins. The core is to choose from BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB. 2. After selecting the target, assess the trend of the long-term (major) cycle and hold long term. One major cycle often takes 2–3 years, with expected returns of about 3–5x. 3. After you understand the 2–3-year major cycle, if you want to further amplify returns, you can learn basic candlestick patterns, or refer to the thinking of experienced traders. Then, within the major cycle, do mid-level swing trades to boost the original 3–5x行情 to 5–10x. 4. When you confirm that the major cycle outlook is favorable, you can use a small position to allocate to potential “sector-leading” coins, aiming for 10x or more returns. 5. Key point: When the major cycle is nearing its end, take profit in a timely manner. Lock in gains and protect your profits to avoid them being given back significantly.
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