The U.S. September non-farm payroll initial release announced on October 2 added only 29,000 jobs, with new positions on the weak side, yet pressure on long-end yields remains.
At the end of October 2, the Ministry of Finance’s curve shows that the 10-year nominal U.S. Treasury yield rose from 5.24% the previous day to 5.28%. Weak employment may weaken some of the rationale for continued tightening, but the Federal Reserve is still constrained by its price objective, and the long end is also affected by factors such as term premium.
Higher nominal U.S. Treasury yields may divert risk capital; existing crypto positions still need to retain long-end risk. During the full nineteen hours after the release, Binance spot BTC surged and then pulled back, and the gains were not sustained. The concurrent price changes cannot prove that the drop was caused by the non-farm data.
If, going forward, for the next two consecutive actual trading days the 10-year yield measured on the same basis is below 5.24%, then “the long end has not eased” should be reassessed. This is a verification condition and not a price forecast.
#宏观经济 #非农数据
At the end of October 2, the Ministry of Finance’s curve shows that the 10-year nominal U.S. Treasury yield rose from 5.24% the previous day to 5.28%. Weak employment may weaken some of the rationale for continued tightening, but the Federal Reserve is still constrained by its price objective, and the long end is also affected by factors such as term premium.
Higher nominal U.S. Treasury yields may divert risk capital; existing crypto positions still need to retain long-end risk. During the full nineteen hours after the release, Binance spot BTC surged and then pulled back, and the gains were not sustained. The concurrent price changes cannot prove that the drop was caused by the non-farm data.
If, going forward, for the next two consecutive actual trading days the 10-year yield measured on the same basis is below 5.24%, then “the long end has not eased” should be reassessed. This is a verification condition and not a price forecast.
#宏观经济 #非农数据
