$SOL rose from $96 to $122 in one week, then traded sideways between $117 and $122 for three days. This price action doesn’t look like it’s probing direction; it looks more like it’s waiting for a liquidity signal strong enough to break the balance — 24 hours -2% but 30 days +18.5%. Put those two together, and the rebound momentum is real; it’s just missing a sufficiently large candle to confirm which way it wants to go next.
The volume spikes on the 19th and 22nd printed $6.6B and $6.83B in turnover, respectively, before naturally easing back to around today’s $3.5B. $117 has never been broken, and $123 has never been touched, so neither bulls nor bears are rushing to show their hand. What I really care about is where the next round of volume expansion will appear after this contraction: if volume picks up and price rebounds around $117, it means the low-level turnover has real underlying support; but if heavy volume pushes down through $116, then the entire recovery so far has only been making up for the sharp mid-September drop, and it wouldn’t even count as a secondary bottom.
ATH is still 59% away, and on a one-year basis it’s still close to being cut in half. Overhead supply has not been sufficiently released through time and liquidity, which is the underlying reason the rebound has been so uneven. The people entering aren’t necessarily smarter; they’re just positioned differently in terms of cash flow.
This $117 to $123 corridor still isn’t convincing either side, but it will have to give an answer in the next high-volume daily candle — whether it gets absorbed by buyers overhead or turns over with real money at lower levels. That will decide whether the next move is $130, rather than just a move from here.
The volume spikes on the 19th and 22nd printed $6.6B and $6.83B in turnover, respectively, before naturally easing back to around today’s $3.5B. $117 has never been broken, and $123 has never been touched, so neither bulls nor bears are rushing to show their hand. What I really care about is where the next round of volume expansion will appear after this contraction: if volume picks up and price rebounds around $117, it means the low-level turnover has real underlying support; but if heavy volume pushes down through $116, then the entire recovery so far has only been making up for the sharp mid-September drop, and it wouldn’t even count as a secondary bottom.
ATH is still 59% away, and on a one-year basis it’s still close to being cut in half. Overhead supply has not been sufficiently released through time and liquidity, which is the underlying reason the rebound has been so uneven. The people entering aren’t necessarily smarter; they’re just positioned differently in terms of cash flow.
This $117 to $123 corridor still isn’t convincing either side, but it will have to give an answer in the next high-volume daily candle — whether it gets absorbed by buyers overhead or turns over with real money at lower levels. That will decide whether the next move is $130, rather than just a move from here.