黑猫SabTheTrader

ETH rose about 70% in the third quarter, but buy and sell orders have thinned out. 👀

According to CoinGecko data, $ETH order book depth has fallen to around 35%–45% of $BTC . With fewer orders on the books, the same-sized trade could cause a bigger price swing—pushing prices up quickly, but potentially sending them tumbling even faster.

A strong rally is great, but it’s also worth watching whether buyers step in during a pullback. I’ll wait for ETH to move out of its current consolidation range and try to resist the urge to chase the rally.

#以太坊q3涨70%流动性下降

🐱 Live time of Sab the Black Cat 🧡

I’ve recently started streaming on the Binance Square. Going forward, unless something special comes up, I’ll be streaming at:
🗓️ Monday to Friday
🕘 21:00–23:00 (evening)

The stream mainly covers what I normally do every day:
📈 Watching the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) spot market
📝 Pre-market plans, key levels, and waiting for setups
🎯 Entry/exit ideas and Price Action

If the NQ session ends early, we’ll also take a look at BTC, ETH, and the more active cryptocurrencies that evening.

My livestream might be a bit different from the lively chatrooms (welcome to the introvert’s livestream, haha).

Most of the time, I’ll just play some light music while I normally monitor the market. If there’s something worth talking about, I’ll share it. If there isn’t a suitable setup, we’ll wait together—I won’t force trades just for the sake of streaming (●'◡'●) (Trading is actually something that requires a lot of patience and emotional control.)

The stream is mainly in Chinese—English is also welcome.

If I ever have to cancel a stream last minute, or if the timing changes, I’ll let everyone know in advance on the Square.
Monday to Friday, at 9 PM.

If you want to see how I trade in my everyday life, come to the livestream.🐱

After the increase expanded to around 25%, the market did not continue trending higher in a one-way move; instead, it switched from a complete hourly range to renewed acceleration in the current hour. Binance public data at 13:37 (UTC+8) showed spot at 2.489 for $ORCA , up 24.89% over 24 hours; perpetuals at 2.482, up 25.04%, with 24-hour trading volume of about 86.47 million USDT.

The previous completed 1-hour perpetual candle rose only 0.04%, but trading volume was about 6.829 million USDT, up 44.46% month over month; spot price was flat over the same period, while volume increased 46.39% month over month. The current unclosed hourly perpetual price is 5.84% higher than the previous hour's close, but this intraday acceleration still needs the close to confirm.

Open interest increased 1.46% in the most recent hour and 35.32% over a 30-point window. Funding is indicated at -0.0506%, and the most recent actual settlement was -0.0557%. Negative funding and position expansion can amplify a squeeze, but perpetual trading volume over the last 4 hours fell 22.75% versus the prior 4 hours, so volume has not fully matched price. Do not chase the rally based only on the funding rate.

For short-term observation, the previous completed hourly range was 2.305-2.446. If subsequent completed hours can hold above 2.446 and trading plus OI continue to expand moderately, the strength has a basis to extend; if price falls back below 2.305 and is accompanied by OI contraction, it looks more like deleveraging after a failed acceleration, so first control the risk of chasing price.

This move is being driven by more than just a 24-hour gain: hourly trading volume and positioning are accelerating in tandem. Public Binance data at 11:37 (UTC+8) showed $PARTI spot at 0.03250, up 17.33% over 24 hours; perpetuals were at 0.03246, up 16.97%, with approximately 29.97 million USDT in 24-hour trading volume.

In the last completed 1-hour period, perpetuals rose 2.16%, with trading volume of approximately 4.515 million USDT, up 1788.79% from the previous hour; spot rose 2.30% over the same period, with trading volume up 2429.50%. The current, unclosed hourly candle has risen about 4.27% above the previous hour’s close, but an intraperiod gain should not be treated as a confirmed close.

OI in contracts increased 11.88% over the last hour and 58.06% over the 30-point window, indicating a clear acceleration in position buildup. Both the Funding indicator and the latest settlement are at +0.0050%, so long funding has not yet reached an extreme. ⚠️ The alignment of price, volume, and OI favors trend continuation, but perpetuals’ 24-hour liquidity is only around 30 million USDT, and rapid position increases can amplify deleveraging in either direction.

In the short term, watch the previous completed hourly range of 0.03029–0.03285. A further move higher is supported only if a subsequent completed hourly candle holds above 0.03285 on increased volume, without OI growth accelerating excessively. If price falls back below 0.03029 while OI remains elevated, prioritize guarding against a rapid pullback following a failed breakout.

Gains are continuing, but momentum is no longer as smooth as it was earlier. Public Binance data at 09:37 (UTC+8) shows $EDU spot at 0.0613, up 15.66% over 24 hours; perpetuals are at 0.06138, up 15.79%, with 24-hour trading volume of approximately 27.88 million USDT.

Perpetuals rose 2.93% in the previous full one-hour period, with trading volume of approximately 1.88 million USDT, up 226.53% from the prior hour. The current, still-open hourly candle is down 0.66% from the previous hour's close. The price has pulled back after a spike, so an intraday rebound should not be taken as confirmation of a fresh breakout.

Quantity OI increased 3.48% over the past hour and 29.60% over the 30-point window, indicating that positions are still expanding. However, both the Funding indication and the latest settlement are only +0.0100%, so funding rates have not yet reached extreme long levels. ⚠️ At the same time, perpetual trading volume over the past four hours fell 46.34% compared with the preceding four hours. This is the key divergence to watch right now: positions are still increasing, but trading volume is cooling.

In the short term, watch the previous full-hour range of 0.05936–0.06263. If a subsequent full hourly candle breaks above 0.06263 on rising volume, without OI expansion accelerating excessively, the trend may have room to push higher. If price falls below 0.05936 alongside contracting OI, it would look more like positions unwinding at elevated levels, so limit the risk of chasing the rally.

After nearly doubling over 24 hours, RLC is now experiencing intense price swings at elevated levels. Binance public data at 07:37 (UTC+8) shows spot at $RLC , with the spot price at 0.7236, up 99.17% over 24 hours; perpetuals at 0.7201, up 98.81%, with trading volume of about 530 million USDT.

The last full 1-hour perpetual candle fell 2.61%, but volume was about 50.11 million USDT, up 68.63% month over month; the current still-open hour has rebounded 4.12% from the previous hour's close. The price pulled back and quickly recovered, indicating that short-term trading is still very active, but incomplete hourly data cannot be treated as confirmation of a breakout.

Open interest has increased 2.88% in the most recent hour, and surged 416.74% over the 30-point window, meaning position expansion is much faster than short-term price changes. Funding is indicated at -0.0405%, with the most recent actual settlement at -0.0239%. Negative funding does not necessarily mean prices will keep rising; combined with very large open interest at high levels, it may instead amplify squeeze risk on both the long and short sides, as well as deleveraging risk.

For the short term, first watch the last full hourly range of 0.6904—0.7761. If a later full hour closes above 0.7761 on strong volume and OI growth starts to stabilize, then the strength has room to continue; if price breaks below 0.6904 accompanied by a rapid contraction in OI, it looks more like the fading of crowded positions, and the nearly 100% gain should not be extrapolated directly.

@奋斗Hustle1688 Brother Hua!

After falling more than 30% in 24 hours, the market has yet to show clear signs of position liquidation. Public Binance data at 15:50 (UTC+8) showed $US perpetual trading at 0.012811, down 32.32% over 24 hours, with about 97.95 million USDT in trading volume; the current, still-open hourly candle is down a further 3.22% from the previous hour’s close.

The previous full hour fell 1.36%, with about 1.5 million USDT in trading volume, down 16.92% from the hour before. Prices were nearly flat over the last four full hours, while trading volume fell 16.51% compared with the preceding four hours. Short-term volume has cooled, but contract-count OI still rose 0.47% over the past hour and 2.38% over the 30-point window, indicating that the number of contracts has not contracted in step with the price decline. This does not reveal the direction of newly opened positions, but it does mean leverage-driven disagreement remains.

The funding indicator is at -0.0108%, while the most recent actual settlement was -0.0031%—negative, but not yet extreme. After a sharp decline, chasing shorts means guarding against both further downside and a rapid rebound in a low-liquidity environment.

In the short term, watch 0.013231–0.013510, the range of the previous full hour. If a subsequent full hourly candle fails to close back above 0.013231 while OI continues to rise, bearish pressure will remain dominant. If the price reclaims 0.013510 and OI falls, that would look more like crowded positions unwinding, making it significantly less attractive to chase shorts.

Prices, trading activity, and open positions are all rising in this round at the same time—having more information value than a standalone price increase. According to Binance’s public data at 13:48 (UTC+8), $MUBARAK spot is quoted at 0.07745, up 17.08% over the past 24 hours; the perpetual contract is at 0.07757, up 17.30%, with approximately 148 million USDT in trading volume over the past 24 hours.

In the previous complete hour, spot and perps rose by 4.64% and 4.67%, respectively. Perp trading volume was about 5.34 million USDT, up 83.21% month-over-month; spot trading volume also increased 48.98% month-over-month. Over the most recent four complete hours, perps rose 10.24%, and trading volume increased 69.00% compared with the prior four hours. OI (open interest) increased by 1.62% over one hour, and the 30-point window increased by 6.01%. With quantity, price, and positions moving together, the underlying structure remains intact.

Funding indications and the most recent actual settlement were both +0.0050%, not following the price surge into crowded positive territory. However, OI only indicates that the number of contracts increased; it cannot determine the direction of new positioning. After a quick surge, any weakening in follow-through could still trigger deleveraging.

For the short term, first look at the prior complete hour’s range of 0.06955–0.07357. In the subsequent complete hour, only if it holds above 0.07357 and trading volume and OI continue to expand can the breakout be considered confirmed. If it falls back below 0.06955 and OI declines as well, treat it as a position “tide retreat” after a high, and do not chase the price.

Prices are accelerating, but positions haven’t caught up. According to Binance perpetual public data at 11:36 (UTC+8), $AIN is at 0.07110, up 46.21% over 24 hours. The range high/low is 0.08560/0.04640, with trading volume of about 421 million USDT. For this asset, this time it is still only confirmed as available to trade on perpetuals.

In the previous full hour, it rose 12.33%, and trading volume increased by 278.03% quarter-on-quarter; over the most recent four complete hours, it has accumulated a gain of 21.89%, with trading volume up 218.41% compared with the prior four hours. The current (not yet closed) hour is also 6.27% higher than the closing price of the previous hour. Price and volume are accelerating further, but intraday changes cannot be treated as a closing confirmation.

The divergence comes from positioning: quantity OI fell 2.34% in the last hour and dropped 8.65% over the 30-point window. The Funding indicator is +0.1422%, while the most recent actual settlement is +0.1638%. As price is pushed up while OI contracts, it may involve deleveraging or short covering. On its own, OI cannot confirm which side is backing off; positive Funding also means long positions still have a high holding cost.

Only if a full hour holds above 0.06966 without a noticeable drop in trading activity can there be a basis for further testing of 0.08560. Once it falls back below 0.05891 and OI continues contracting, I will prioritize treating it as deleveraging after the spike. In a high-volatility phase, don’t chase the intraday surge by increasing leverage.

This round of the upswing wasn’t driven by price alone. Binance’s public data at 07:36 (UTC+8) shows that perpetual contracts are at 0.17611 for $GTC , up 55.29% over the past 24 hours; the spot price is 0.17580, up 53.59%. Both markets are moving in the same direction.

In the previous complete 1-hour period, perps rose 7.91% with trading volume up 80.93% quarter-over-quarter; spot rose 8.02% with trading volume up 98.39% in the same period. Over the most recent four complete hours, perps accumulated gains of 11.85%, with trading volume 53.21% higher than the prior four hours—near-term volume and price action are still expanding.

Positions and fees reveal sharper divergence: open interest (OI) increased by 0.60% over the last hour, and within a 48-point window it rose 53.41%. The Funding indicator is -0.6680%, while the most recent actual settlement is -0.4830%. When price, trading, and positions all move up together, shorts still pay elevated costs, suggesting the squeeze could continue. However, deeply negative Funding does not necessarily mean price must keep rising, and quantity-based OI cannot determine the direction of newly added positions.

The current unclosed hour is only about 0.32% higher than the previous hour’s close. If the full hour holds above 0.17550, and both成交量 and OI continue to expand, there would be a basis to retest 0.18277. If it breaks below 0.16120 and is accompanied by OI contraction, prioritize guarding against deleveraging at higher levels rather than simply treating the pullback as a follow-on opportunity.

Greed Index at 68: $BTC Should You Chase or Run? I Looked at Four Years of Data 👀

When people see “the market is greedy,” some want to chase the rally, while others get ready to short. But the market can behave very differently after the same reading of 68.

💡 I checked the dates from October 4, 2022, to October 3, 2026, when the Alternative.me reading was exactly 68. There were 19 of them. Using the BTC daily closing price on each date as the baseline:
▸ 7 days later: 10 were up and 9 were down;
▸ 30 days later: also 10 were up and 9 were down.

Note that these 19 dates include consecutive or near-consecutive observations, and the follow-up periods overlap. They shouldn’t be treated as 19 independent trades, and 10/19 certainly shouldn’t be presented as a long-trade win rate. The sample is small, and fees aren’t included.

A few examples make the differences clearer:
1️⃣ April 14, 2023: Index at 68.
BTC closed at around $30,500 that day, then fell about 10.5% over the next 7 days and about 11.7% over the next 30 days. Sentiment can be hot while prices still pull back.

2️⃣ November 7, 2023: Index also at 68.
BTC closed at around $35,400, then rose about 0.3% over the next 7 days and about 22.2% over the next 30 days. If you assume greed means a top, you might get out too early.

3️⃣ July 26, 2024: Still at 68.
BTC closed at around $67,900, then fell about 9.6% over the next 7 days and about 5.3% over the next 30 days. The same reading didn’t reproduce the rally from the previous cycle.

4️⃣ June 17, 2025: Index at 68.
BTC closed at around $104,600, then rose about 1.4% over the next 7 days and about 14.0% over the next 30 days. Greed can accompany a continuing trend, too.

These comparisons remind me that one number can’t capture the trend, buying pressure, and market conditions at the time.
And Alternative.me’s calculation already includes price volatility, momentum, and trading volume. A rising market can push the index higher, so using the index to prove that “prices will keep rising” can easily become circular reasoning.

I’d look one step further: Is this reading of 68 rising gradually from fear, or falling from a higher level of greed? Is the price holding after a breakout, or repeatedly spiking and pulling back?

I’ll keep an eye on the market tonight, Sunday, too. If price holds on a retest after breaking out, I’ll keep watching for the uptrend to continue; if it spikes and then falls back into the range, I’ll be less inclined to chase. Especially with futures, don’t use a sentiment reading as a reason to add to your position. 🙈

Price action has the final say.

* NFA, DYOR

#比特币冲击8.7万美元遇阻回落

Position expansion is faster than price movement. Public Binance data at 13:38 (UTC+8) shows the $2Z perpetual at 0.04561, up 1.85% over the past 24 hours; the spot price is 0.04582, up 1.62%. The current unclosed hour is 0.86% higher than the previous hour’s close.

Over the last complete 1 hour, the perpetual price fell 0.24% and trading volume decreased 46.88% quarter-over-quarter; meanwhile, spot in the same period fell 0.20% and trading volume also fell 40.69%. In the most recent four complete hours, prices were still up 0.53%, but trading volume was 25.48% lower than in the preceding four hours, suggesting the rebound has not yet been confirmed by sustained momentum.

On the other hand, the quantity OI (open interest) increased 0.31% over the last hour, and within the 48-point window it rose 80.06%. Funding indicators were -0.1400%, while the most recent actual settlement was -0.1718%. When price is consolidating with a bullish bias, positions keep building up and shorts pay the funding. This can both become “squeeze fuel” and amplify moves in the opposite direction. Quantity OI by itself cannot determine the direction of newly added positions.

Only if the full hour holds above 0.04534 and both成交量 and OI expand in sync would the short-term setup have conditions to further test 0.04736. If it breaks below 0.04508 and OI declines alongside it, this move looks more like crowded positioning unwinding rather than a valid breakout.

Short-term capital is re-pricing this move. According to Binance public data at 11:38 (UTC+8), the $AXS perpetual is at 1.3128, with a 24-hour gain of only 0.89%, but in the last 4 completed hours it has already risen 5.32%. The currently open (not yet closed) hour is also 4.51% higher than the previous hour’s closing price.

In the previous completed 1-hour period, the price rose 1.61%. Perpetual trading volume was about 2.64 million USDT, down 33.96% from the prior hour, but over the last 4 completed hours the volume is still about 1144% higher than the earlier 4 hours. Spot in the same completed hour rose 1.37%. Both markets moved in the same direction, but after the burst, volume has started to cool off.

OI over the past hour increased by 1.55%, and the 48-point window increased by 22.66%. The Funding indicator is -0.0722%, and the most recent actual settlement is -0.0134%. When both price and positions rise together, shorts are still paying; this may continue to drive squeezes, and it also means volatility and the risk of counter-liquidations are building.

I’ll wait for the completed hour to confirm. If price holds 1.2683, and both成交 and OI expand again, then strength would have a base to continue testing 1.3270. If it breaks below 1.2244 and is accompanied by OI contraction, it looks more like deleveraging at high levels rather than a healthy pullback.

High-level turnover has pushed volatility to extremes. Binance perpetual data at 09:38 (UTC+8) shows $AIN at 0.04705: up 96.04% over the past 24 hours. The range high/low is 0.05786/0.02310, with trading volume of about 399 million USDT.

In the previous complete 1-hour period, the price fell 7.82%, and trading volume decreased 2.14% month-on-month; however, the current unfinished hour has bounced 17.75% from the previous hour’s close. Over the past nearly 4 hours, it is still down 22.88%, but trading volume is up 44.41% compared with the prior 4 hours—short-term activity shows a surge followed by intense, volatile contention.

Quantity OI has increased 2.30% in the last hour, and the 30-point window has increased 51.96%. The Funding indicator is +0.1756%, and the most recent realized settlement is +0.2149%. Positions continue to expand, and long holders’ average costs are relatively high. Since OI can’t determine the direction of new positions, positive Funding does not necessarily mean the price must drop.

I place more emphasis on confirmation within a full hour. If the close can hold above 0.04673, and OI and trading volume continue to expand, then the rebound has a basis to continue. If it breaks back below 0.03922 while OI contracts, high-level deleveraging may accelerate again. With the 24-hour gain nearing a doubling, when chasing price or trying to top in the face of the trend, leverage must be kept under control.

Another day of waking up early to刷 #ALPHA . ☕

Yesterday I went out for a walk during the day (my husband dragged me back and forth—10 kilometers, I’m impressed), and at night when I got home $DGAI was still not stable. So I had to get up early and keep刷ing. But then... just now it still didn’t seem very stable, and in the end I磨损 65,000 by 3.49—pretty good, not bad.

The sunshine right now is too nice. I’m going to meditate for a bit and kick off this beautiful Sunday!

By the way, everyone—what tier are you all刷ing Alpha on right now?
Will we be able to get some big juicy wins during the holiday week!