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大嗯BNB
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October 3rd, Uptober day three.
BTC is around 86,000, nearing the Q3 high of 87,300, with a clear sell-pressure wall above.
Two things happened this week that are worth mentioning separately.
First: Citi significantly raised its BTC price target.
Citigroup lifted its 12-month BTC target price from 82,000 to 113,000, citing increased crypto market activity, an improving macro backdrop, and continued ETF inflows. At the same time, it raised the Strategy (Saylor’s company) target price from $136 to $240.
One top-tier Wall Street firm didn’t raise its BTC target until after BTC had already risen 47% from 58,500—worth a quick jab. But more importantly, this target reflects a change in the long-term outlook on BTC within institutions. The old 82,000 target was set at the end of last year; the market has already moved beyond it. This upward revision is essentially an acknowledgment of reality and a formal endorsement of a bullish Q4.
Second: the prediction market cut the probability of hitting 100,000 in October from 85% to 13%.
At one point last week, the Polymarket contract for “BTC hitting 100,000 in October” was hovering near 85%—that was when market sentiment was at its highest. Then, as expectations for the September jobs report (nonfarm) warmed up, and the odds of a rate hike at the October FOMC stayed at 64%, the probability was quickly revised down to 13%.
Putting these two together shows the market’s true state right now: long-term bullish (Citi 113,000), short-term cautious (13% probability of 100,000 in October).
Today’s key is this nonfarm report.
If the data is soft (jobs growth below expectations, like July’s -23,000), the October rate-hike probability will cool again, giving BTC a chance to break above 87,300 and open up room from 90,000 to 95,000. If the data is strong (like August’s +162,000), upward pressure from October rate-hike expectations will rise again, and BTC will likely trade sideways in the 85,000–87,000 range in the short term, waiting for the next signal from CPI on October 14.
“Uptober”’s historical average gain is 18%, but among the 12 completed records in Q4, five have been negative. History is a reference, not a guarantee.
Today’s nonfarm data will determine whether Uptober’s first week can hold steady—soft data is a good start; strong data is “grind first, then see.”
Which side are you betting on? Tell me your view on today’s nonfarm report.
$BTC
#BTC
BTC is around 86,000, nearing the Q3 high of 87,300, with a clear sell-pressure wall above.
Two things happened this week that are worth mentioning separately.
First: Citi significantly raised its BTC price target.
Citigroup lifted its 12-month BTC target price from 82,000 to 113,000, citing increased crypto market activity, an improving macro backdrop, and continued ETF inflows. At the same time, it raised the Strategy (Saylor’s company) target price from $136 to $240.
One top-tier Wall Street firm didn’t raise its BTC target until after BTC had already risen 47% from 58,500—worth a quick jab. But more importantly, this target reflects a change in the long-term outlook on BTC within institutions. The old 82,000 target was set at the end of last year; the market has already moved beyond it. This upward revision is essentially an acknowledgment of reality and a formal endorsement of a bullish Q4.
Second: the prediction market cut the probability of hitting 100,000 in October from 85% to 13%.
At one point last week, the Polymarket contract for “BTC hitting 100,000 in October” was hovering near 85%—that was when market sentiment was at its highest. Then, as expectations for the September jobs report (nonfarm) warmed up, and the odds of a rate hike at the October FOMC stayed at 64%, the probability was quickly revised down to 13%.
Putting these two together shows the market’s true state right now: long-term bullish (Citi 113,000), short-term cautious (13% probability of 100,000 in October).
Today’s key is this nonfarm report.
If the data is soft (jobs growth below expectations, like July’s -23,000), the October rate-hike probability will cool again, giving BTC a chance to break above 87,300 and open up room from 90,000 to 95,000. If the data is strong (like August’s +162,000), upward pressure from October rate-hike expectations will rise again, and BTC will likely trade sideways in the 85,000–87,000 range in the short term, waiting for the next signal from CPI on October 14.
“Uptober”’s historical average gain is 18%, but among the 12 completed records in Q4, five have been negative. History is a reference, not a guarantee.
Today’s nonfarm data will determine whether Uptober’s first week can hold steady—soft data is a good start; strong data is “grind first, then see.”
Which side are you betting on? Tell me your view on today’s nonfarm report.
$BTC
#BTC
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.