SMBC Nikko has had Uniswap Labs and Base sign a memorandum for Japan-compliant DeFi. The news appeared at around 4 p.m. Beijing time on 10/2. $UNI Over the next ten hours, it dropped from around 9.10 to 8.58.
With a major Japanese brokerage entering the game, the market basically didn’t offer a price.
Looking ahead is clearer: over the four daily candles from 9/29 to 10/2, the intraday highs were 9.29, 9.20, 9.26, and 9.32, and the closes were all below 9.0. Every day, someone pushes it up to around 9.3, but every day it fails to hold.
When I wrote about UNI two days ago, I mistakenly set “closed above 9.30” as a line I thought I saw—but it hasn’t closed above it to this day.
The memorandum’s product target is mid-2027, with about nine months left. The good news is that it’s realized in the year after next; meanwhile, right now buy-side support can’t hold past 9.3. These two things aren’t contradictory.
At the current price of 9.18, it’s only 1% away from the upper band. If you chase here, you’re betting it can break through the fifth time. I don’t think that’s likely.
What would count as me being wrong: a daily close above 9.32—meaning the market has started to price in this news. In that case, I’d change my view. If it goes lower first, I’d look at 8.58, the low of that drop early this morning.
#UNI #DeFi
With a major Japanese brokerage entering the game, the market basically didn’t offer a price.
Looking ahead is clearer: over the four daily candles from 9/29 to 10/2, the intraday highs were 9.29, 9.20, 9.26, and 9.32, and the closes were all below 9.0. Every day, someone pushes it up to around 9.3, but every day it fails to hold.
When I wrote about UNI two days ago, I mistakenly set “closed above 9.30” as a line I thought I saw—but it hasn’t closed above it to this day.
The memorandum’s product target is mid-2027, with about nine months left. The good news is that it’s realized in the year after next; meanwhile, right now buy-side support can’t hold past 9.3. These two things aren’t contradictory.
At the current price of 9.18, it’s only 1% away from the upper band. If you chase here, you’re betting it can break through the fifth time. I don’t think that’s likely.
What would count as me being wrong: a daily close above 9.32—meaning the market has started to price in this news. In that case, I’d change my view. If it goes lower first, I’d look at 8.58, the low of that drop early this morning.
#UNI #DeFi
