Has Bitcoin topped out? #BTC
Last night, the Non-Farm Payrolls only came in at 290,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data was released, rate-hike expectations cooled sharply— the probability of a rate hike in October fell from nearly 80% to around 20%. The market generally believes the Fed will hold steady on October 28! But the boost to crypto prices is relatively short-lived: the good news was priced in early. Before the data came out, BTC had already risen. This is a classic case of “buy the expectation, sell the fact.” Treasury yields didn’t truly fall— the 10-year yield is still above 5.2%, staying at elevated levels. Long-term rate pressure hasn’t been lifted, and rate-hike expectations for December are still there!
The next focus is (the CPI on October 14). That will be the key to whether there will be a rate hike in October!
Technicals: The daily uptrend structure is still intact. Price is above the main moving averages. The $87,000–87,300 zone has been rejected for the third time. The triple-top sell pressure is heavy. After last night’s spike higher and subsequent pullback, the market has shifted into short-term consolidation.
Resistance levels: $85,000–85,700 (minor near-term resistance)
- $87,000–87,300 (triple top; only a breakout would turn the trend stronger, with upside toward $89,000–90,000)
Support levels: $83,000–84,300 (intraday support; if it breaks, be cautious)
$82,500 is the key support— if it breaks, watch for the $80,000–81,000 area. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万人失业率升至4.2% $BTC
Last night, the Non-Farm Payrolls only came in at 290,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data was released, rate-hike expectations cooled sharply— the probability of a rate hike in October fell from nearly 80% to around 20%. The market generally believes the Fed will hold steady on October 28! But the boost to crypto prices is relatively short-lived: the good news was priced in early. Before the data came out, BTC had already risen. This is a classic case of “buy the expectation, sell the fact.” Treasury yields didn’t truly fall— the 10-year yield is still above 5.2%, staying at elevated levels. Long-term rate pressure hasn’t been lifted, and rate-hike expectations for December are still there!
The next focus is (the CPI on October 14). That will be the key to whether there will be a rate hike in October!
Technicals: The daily uptrend structure is still intact. Price is above the main moving averages. The $87,000–87,300 zone has been rejected for the third time. The triple-top sell pressure is heavy. After last night’s spike higher and subsequent pullback, the market has shifted into short-term consolidation.
Resistance levels: $85,000–85,700 (minor near-term resistance)
- $87,000–87,300 (triple top; only a breakout would turn the trend stronger, with upside toward $89,000–90,000)
Support levels: $83,000–84,300 (intraday support; if it breaks, be cautious)
$82,500 is the key support— if it breaks, watch for the $80,000–81,000 area. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万人失业率升至4.2% $BTC
