BTC surged to 87,000 again and then fell back. This non-farm report still can’t sustain a continued rally
In the next 24 to 48 hours, I’m more inclined to believe $BTC will keep chopping lower under pressure. The non-farm employment data is relatively weak and may ease concerns about further rate hikes, but Bitcoin has already given back the gains after the data release. BTC hasn’t reclaimed the pre-release price. This weekend, I’m expecting it to move higher steadily—but for now, I don’t agree with that.
On the evening of October 2 at 20:30, the US September non-farm payrolls added 290,000 jobs, below Reuters’ survey expectation of 90,000. The combined figures for July and August were also revised down by 60,000, indicating that job growth in the first two months was even lower than originally seen. Private non-farm average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month over month, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. This set of data provides slightly less justification for continued rate hikes.
Weaker employment could lead the Fed to hike less times, reducing one layer of interest-rate pressure on BTC. If the cost of capital doesn’t keep rising, investors may also be more willing to tolerate the volatility of holding BTC. Whether this buying interest will actually show up remains to be seen in the subsequent market.
The Fed only raised rates by 25 bps on September 16, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. The statement still says inflation is too high. This non-farm report can support the view that there may be one fewer hike, but it’s still too early to treat rate cuts as already certain.
BTC did surge briefly, then pulled back again. Binance BTC/USDT spot was around 86,616 USDT before the release, and within the first 15 minutes after the release it hit a high of 87,220. After that, it failed to hold. As of 11:02 Beijing time on October 3, it was quoted at 84,614—about 2.31% lower than the level before the release. Here, we compare before vs. after the release, not the 24-hour move.
Price can’t tell us who is selling, but this time the upside push wasn’t sustained. Even if the non-farm report gives a reason for fewer hikes, the current data still isn’t enough to interpret this weekend’s rebound as a sustained rally.
The bullish case is still there. Wage growth is slow, and the prior two months were revised down again—so employment data could indeed make the Fed more cautious about continuing rate hikes. An unemployment rate of 4.2% also isn’t enough on its own to prove that the US has already entered a recession. Writing weak non-farm data as “BTC must fall” is equally over the top.
For now, I’ll use the area around 86,600 USDT to test the rebound. This is the actual price before the release, used to compare the走势 before and after the news. If BTC reclaims this zone and holds it, I’ll withdraw my view that the weekend is relatively weak; if it only bounces briefly and then falls back again, the explanation that it remains under pressure to consolidate will have more support. You can open the BTC chart to cross-check this condition.
#BTC #非农 #Federal Reserve
In the next 24 to 48 hours, I’m more inclined to believe $BTC will keep chopping lower under pressure. The non-farm employment data is relatively weak and may ease concerns about further rate hikes, but Bitcoin has already given back the gains after the data release. BTC hasn’t reclaimed the pre-release price. This weekend, I’m expecting it to move higher steadily—but for now, I don’t agree with that.
On the evening of October 2 at 20:30, the US September non-farm payrolls added 290,000 jobs, below Reuters’ survey expectation of 90,000. The combined figures for July and August were also revised down by 60,000, indicating that job growth in the first two months was even lower than originally seen. Private non-farm average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month over month, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. This set of data provides slightly less justification for continued rate hikes.
Weaker employment could lead the Fed to hike less times, reducing one layer of interest-rate pressure on BTC. If the cost of capital doesn’t keep rising, investors may also be more willing to tolerate the volatility of holding BTC. Whether this buying interest will actually show up remains to be seen in the subsequent market.
The Fed only raised rates by 25 bps on September 16, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. The statement still says inflation is too high. This non-farm report can support the view that there may be one fewer hike, but it’s still too early to treat rate cuts as already certain.
BTC did surge briefly, then pulled back again. Binance BTC/USDT spot was around 86,616 USDT before the release, and within the first 15 minutes after the release it hit a high of 87,220. After that, it failed to hold. As of 11:02 Beijing time on October 3, it was quoted at 84,614—about 2.31% lower than the level before the release. Here, we compare before vs. after the release, not the 24-hour move.
Price can’t tell us who is selling, but this time the upside push wasn’t sustained. Even if the non-farm report gives a reason for fewer hikes, the current data still isn’t enough to interpret this weekend’s rebound as a sustained rally.
The bullish case is still there. Wage growth is slow, and the prior two months were revised down again—so employment data could indeed make the Fed more cautious about continuing rate hikes. An unemployment rate of 4.2% also isn’t enough on its own to prove that the US has already entered a recession. Writing weak non-farm data as “BTC must fall” is equally over the top.
For now, I’ll use the area around 86,600 USDT to test the rebound. This is the actual price before the release, used to compare the走势 before and after the news. If BTC reclaims this zone and holds it, I’ll withdraw my view that the weekend is relatively weak; if it only bounces briefly and then falls back again, the explanation that it remains under pressure to consolidate will have more support. You can open the BTC chart to cross-check this condition.
#BTC #非农 #Federal Reserve