Nonfarm payrolls disappoint by only 29,000 jobs added; bets on the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes heat up. A new twist awaits the crypto market and tokenized US stocks
I. Employment data far below expectations shocks the market
The U.S. Department of Labor’s September nonfarm payrolls report left markets stunned. New nonfarm jobs added were just 29,000, far below the market forecast of 90,000—an enormous gap of 68%. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, further confirming that the labor market is clearly cooling. After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, and expectations of the Fed pausing rate hikes in October quickly intensified. For investors, this suggests that a tightening cycle that has lasted for months may be approaching a turning point.
II. The crypto market reacts first as Bitcoin breaks $88,000
After the employment data came out, the crypto market became one of the earliest asset classes to respond. Bitcoin surged rapidly and broke through the $88,000 level; the size of liquidations of short positions exceeded $120 million. The market logic was straightforward: weaker employment reduces the Fed’s incentive to keep raising rates, and improved liquidity expectations directly benefit risk assets. Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.65 billion in September, marking the second-largest monthly inflow since October 2025. Citibank then raised its 12-month Bitcoin target price to $113,000, expecting that crypto ETFs will attract roughly $5 billion in capital over the next year. The continued inflow of institutional funds is fundamentally changing the capital structure of the crypto market.
III. Regulatory tailwinds accelerate as the SEC approves triple-leveraged crypto ETFs
Just as the macro environment begins to shift toward easing, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission also delivered major news. The SEC formally approved triple-leveraged ETF products for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and also included commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas within the same product structure. This represents a significant expansion by U.S. regulators of investment tools for crypto derivatives, meaning U.S. investors may be able to gain higher-leverage exposure to crypto markets through compliant channels in the future. In addition, the SEC proposed a new framework for custody of crypto assets, allowing registered investment advisers and regulated funds to self-custody crypto assets if specific conditions are met. The SEC chair said this framework bridges the gap between traditional custody rules and digital assets, and is expected to remove a major barrier to institutional entry.
IV. Tokenized US stocks break the $1 billion milestone
In the tokenization space, BNB Chain became the first blockchain worldwide whose total tokenized stocks and ETFs exceeded $1 billion, accounting for about 30% of the global $3.7 billion tokenized US stocks market. Meanwhile, Base also added 26 tokenized stocks, including Nvidia and Netflix, enabling 24/7 trading. Tokenized US stocks are moving from concept to mainstream, and the trend of putting traditional financial assets on-chain is accelerating. From an investor’s perspective, tokenized stocks offer more flexible trading hours and lower entry barriers—especially with significant growth potential in Asia and emerging markets.
V. Outlook
Overall, weak employment data gives the Fed room to pause tightening, while ongoing regulatory loosening is opening new growth channels for crypto and tokenized assets. In the short term, markets may keep trading back and forth around expectations for Fed policy. But over the medium to long term, institutional capital entering the market and greater clarity in regulatory frameworks should provide a more solid foundation for the entire industry. Investors should closely monitor subsequent employment data and Fed statements, while also paying attention to how the market structure changes once tokenized US stocks and leveraged ETF products are launched. At this critical moment in a macro turning point, staying rational and managing risk matters more than chasing short-term volatility.
#非农数据爆冷 #代币化美股 #SEC批准杠杆ETF
I. Employment data far below expectations shocks the market
The U.S. Department of Labor’s September nonfarm payrolls report left markets stunned. New nonfarm jobs added were just 29,000, far below the market forecast of 90,000—an enormous gap of 68%. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, further confirming that the labor market is clearly cooling. After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, and expectations of the Fed pausing rate hikes in October quickly intensified. For investors, this suggests that a tightening cycle that has lasted for months may be approaching a turning point.
II. The crypto market reacts first as Bitcoin breaks $88,000
After the employment data came out, the crypto market became one of the earliest asset classes to respond. Bitcoin surged rapidly and broke through the $88,000 level; the size of liquidations of short positions exceeded $120 million. The market logic was straightforward: weaker employment reduces the Fed’s incentive to keep raising rates, and improved liquidity expectations directly benefit risk assets. Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.65 billion in September, marking the second-largest monthly inflow since October 2025. Citibank then raised its 12-month Bitcoin target price to $113,000, expecting that crypto ETFs will attract roughly $5 billion in capital over the next year. The continued inflow of institutional funds is fundamentally changing the capital structure of the crypto market.
III. Regulatory tailwinds accelerate as the SEC approves triple-leveraged crypto ETFs
Just as the macro environment begins to shift toward easing, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission also delivered major news. The SEC formally approved triple-leveraged ETF products for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and also included commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas within the same product structure. This represents a significant expansion by U.S. regulators of investment tools for crypto derivatives, meaning U.S. investors may be able to gain higher-leverage exposure to crypto markets through compliant channels in the future. In addition, the SEC proposed a new framework for custody of crypto assets, allowing registered investment advisers and regulated funds to self-custody crypto assets if specific conditions are met. The SEC chair said this framework bridges the gap between traditional custody rules and digital assets, and is expected to remove a major barrier to institutional entry.
IV. Tokenized US stocks break the $1 billion milestone
In the tokenization space, BNB Chain became the first blockchain worldwide whose total tokenized stocks and ETFs exceeded $1 billion, accounting for about 30% of the global $3.7 billion tokenized US stocks market. Meanwhile, Base also added 26 tokenized stocks, including Nvidia and Netflix, enabling 24/7 trading. Tokenized US stocks are moving from concept to mainstream, and the trend of putting traditional financial assets on-chain is accelerating. From an investor’s perspective, tokenized stocks offer more flexible trading hours and lower entry barriers—especially with significant growth potential in Asia and emerging markets.
V. Outlook
Overall, weak employment data gives the Fed room to pause tightening, while ongoing regulatory loosening is opening new growth channels for crypto and tokenized assets. In the short term, markets may keep trading back and forth around expectations for Fed policy. But over the medium to long term, institutional capital entering the market and greater clarity in regulatory frameworks should provide a more solid foundation for the entire industry. Investors should closely monitor subsequent employment data and Fed statements, while also paying attention to how the market structure changes once tokenized US stocks and leveraged ETF products are launched. At this critical moment in a macro turning point, staying rational and managing risk matters more than chasing short-term volatility.
#非农数据爆冷 #代币化美股 #SEC批准杠杆ETF