The jobs data weakens, yet BTC gives back its gains: the interest-rate pressure hasn’t been lifted
I’m more inclined to view the reaction on October 2 as a pause in rate expectations that hasn’t yet firmly taken hold, rather than evidence that a loosening rally has already been established. For those following BTC, weak employment is not a reason to chase; the key is whether yields can keep falling and whether any rebound can be sustained.
On October 2, the U.S. reported that September nonfarm payrolls added 29,000 jobs. August was revised down to 133,000, and the combined revisions for July and August totaled a decrease of 60,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.1% month over month.
Slower job growth and wage growth would weaken the case for further rate hikes, but it doesn’t mean the Fed has already decided to cut rates. According to CoinDesk’s intraday records that day, BTC jumped to about $87,000 after the report, then clearly sold off; the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries also switched from falling to rising. This is the intraday process—not today’s live quote.
This reversal reminds me of one thing: weak data and the true release of interest-rate pressure on holding risk assets are two different matters. Also, synchronized volatility doesn’t prove the pullback is entirely driven by inflation concerns; explanations such as profit-taking still can’t be ruled out. On the other hand, the BLS says the unemployment rate has remained in a narrow band of 4.1% to 4.3% since March, so you can’t determine a recession based on just one month of nonfarm data.
Over the next two U.S. stock trading sessions, watch whether yields can fall again and hold, and whether BTC can stabilize its rebound. Then look at the September CPI to be released on October 14. If inflation cools in tandem, yields keep trending down, and BTC no longer spikes then falls back, I’ll increase my assessment of the rebound’s sustainability. If inflation picks up again and yields continue rising, I’ll lower expectations. Don’t answer future data in advance based on just one nonfarm report.
#比特币 #非农 #Macro Watch
I’m more inclined to view the reaction on October 2 as a pause in rate expectations that hasn’t yet firmly taken hold, rather than evidence that a loosening rally has already been established. For those following BTC, weak employment is not a reason to chase; the key is whether yields can keep falling and whether any rebound can be sustained.
On October 2, the U.S. reported that September nonfarm payrolls added 29,000 jobs. August was revised down to 133,000, and the combined revisions for July and August totaled a decrease of 60,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.1% month over month.
Slower job growth and wage growth would weaken the case for further rate hikes, but it doesn’t mean the Fed has already decided to cut rates. According to CoinDesk’s intraday records that day, BTC jumped to about $87,000 after the report, then clearly sold off; the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries also switched from falling to rising. This is the intraday process—not today’s live quote.
This reversal reminds me of one thing: weak data and the true release of interest-rate pressure on holding risk assets are two different matters. Also, synchronized volatility doesn’t prove the pullback is entirely driven by inflation concerns; explanations such as profit-taking still can’t be ruled out. On the other hand, the BLS says the unemployment rate has remained in a narrow band of 4.1% to 4.3% since March, so you can’t determine a recession based on just one month of nonfarm data.
Over the next two U.S. stock trading sessions, watch whether yields can fall again and hold, and whether BTC can stabilize its rebound. Then look at the September CPI to be released on October 14. If inflation cools in tandem, yields keep trending down, and BTC no longer spikes then falls back, I’ll increase my assessment of the rebound’s sustainability. If inflation picks up again and yields continue rising, I’ll lower expectations. Don’t answer future data in advance based on just one nonfarm report.
#比特币 #非农 #Macro Watch