The madman says…

In September, the non-farm payrolls were just the same as yesterday’s expected outcome—significantly worse than anticipated, rising by 29K versus the expected 90K. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. As soon as the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in October immediately fell to 16%, and there’s basically no chance of a rate hike in October. This is completely consistent with what was discussed yesterday about manipulating policy through data. The market also chose the same path as yesterday: good data pushed it up for a first wave, but the market didn’t believe it, and it then dropped back again. After all, Treasury yields have stayed stubbornly high. In this situation, either bonds or stocks (and things related to crypto) have to be the one to correct first. Guess who it will be?

On Oct 1, ETF inflows were 100 million; mainly, BlackRock bought 195 million. Fidelity, Grayscale, and others are seeing outflows. It feels like institutions are distributing to retail investors.

Overall, the market is still in a bull-market progression. Many bearish factors have not dragged the market down; instead, prices kept rising. After rising, the market has continuously replaced pullbacks with a period of sideways consolidation. The market has shown a strong stance. The next important time point is the CPI data on the 14th, which is expected to further reinforce the probability that there will be no rate hike in October. Our view remains unchanged: continue the strong high-level sideways consolidation.

"[The Madman Talks About Trends] Overall, the market is still in a bull-market progression, continuing to consolidate sideways at a position of strength" This article was first published on (BlockTimes).