BTC three-round review in one sentence
• 09-30: Drew lines—84,300 long / 82,563 short;
• 10-01/02: Breaks above 84,300, rallies to 87,220;
• 10-03: The previous high at 87,395 fails twice to break—then it sells off back to 83,888.
• Result: Everything in the “sell near the prior high where bearish divergence happens first and take profits when 85,400 breaks down” that I wrote early has fully played out. This isn’t a guess—the resistance level is naturally there.
Current situation
• The big trend hasn’t turned bad (4H is still above MA25/99), but the prior high at 87,395 is hard resistance and it failed twice;
• 83,888–83,186 is the waiting/observing area for entries—only when price reclaims 85,400 does it turn strong again; if it breaks below 83,186, get out;
• 84,571 is the mid zone—don’t chase the rebound.
Confidence index: 7.5/10.
• The strong points: The previous high at 87,395 rejected, and a break below 85,400 turned weak—these are clearly marked on the chart;
• The remaining uncertainty: Whether the bottom at 83,888 is real (can it hold for a “30-point bottom bearish divergence” entry). It’s not confirmed yet—maybe it V-reverses immediately, or maybe it sells off again to 83,186. I’m not betting; I’ll wait for these two levels to give the answer.
• 09-30: Drew lines—84,300 long / 82,563 short;
• 10-01/02: Breaks above 84,300, rallies to 87,220;
• 10-03: The previous high at 87,395 fails twice to break—then it sells off back to 83,888.
• Result: Everything in the “sell near the prior high where bearish divergence happens first and take profits when 85,400 breaks down” that I wrote early has fully played out. This isn’t a guess—the resistance level is naturally there.
Current situation
• The big trend hasn’t turned bad (4H is still above MA25/99), but the prior high at 87,395 is hard resistance and it failed twice;
• 83,888–83,186 is the waiting/observing area for entries—only when price reclaims 85,400 does it turn strong again; if it breaks below 83,186, get out;
• 84,571 is the mid zone—don’t chase the rebound.
Confidence index: 7.5/10.
• The strong points: The previous high at 87,395 rejected, and a break below 85,400 turned weak—these are clearly marked on the chart;
• The remaining uncertainty: Whether the bottom at 83,888 is real (can it hold for a “30-point bottom bearish divergence” entry). It’s not confirmed yet—maybe it V-reverses immediately, or maybe it sells off again to 83,186. I’m not betting; I’ll wait for these two levels to give the answer.