$BTC Funding rate topic has a new settled reading, but it does not prove that “overall market leverage keeps accelerating.” This round of incremental data completes the missing 08:00 settlement from previous posts and fills in the subsequent OI hourly samples: Binance BTCUSDT USDⓈ-M’s funding rate at the 00:00 settlement on October 3 was +0.001214% per 8 hours, and the actual settlement at 08:00 rose to +0.004574% per 8 hours—about 3.77 times the prior value. Note that this is a change from a low base; if you simply multiply the single-period funding rate by 3 times per day and then by 365 days, the arithmetic annualization is about 5.01%. That is not a forecast of future returns, nor can it be directly used to validate the “10%” statistical methodology on the trending list. The title does not specify the exchange, the sample range, or the annualization method, so you cannot combine different conventions.
The open-interest (OI) sequence is also not unidirectionally upward. Binance’s single BTCUSDT contract OI bounced from 95,282.6 BTC at 02:00 to 98,937.3 BTC at 05:00, then fell back to 98,184.2 BTC at 08:00. From 02:00 to 08:00 it remained higher by about 3.05%, but over the latest three hours it dropped by roughly 0.76%. It only represents the open interest of this one contract; an increase or decrease in OI by itself cannot identify long-vs-short direction, nor does it equal total positions across all exchanges. Funding-rate descriptions indicate the settlement payment direction, while OI describes the scale of open positions. Even when both move at the same time, you still cannot determine which side the newly added positions belong to. In this article, the OI unit is in BTC, and it does not conflate dollar notional value with contract quantity.
The price boundaries given are: around 08:37, Binance spot BTCUSDT is about $84,639, down about 0.17% over the past 24 hours and still below $85,000. Therefore, the more prudent description right now is that “the single-contract settlement funding rate has been lifted from a low level; OI first repaired and then dipped slightly; and price has not yet reclaimed the key level.” It is not “longs have fully returned.” A positive funding rate reflects the payment direction between longs and shorts for that settlement period; it does not mean spot net buying. Next, you need to see whether subsequent settled funding rates and whether OI expand again, and whether price can reclaim the level with complete hourly closes. If you look at only one instantaneous funding rate value—or extrapolate short-term OI changes to the whole market—the conclusion will inevitably be overstated.
#BTC
The open-interest (OI) sequence is also not unidirectionally upward. Binance’s single BTCUSDT contract OI bounced from 95,282.6 BTC at 02:00 to 98,937.3 BTC at 05:00, then fell back to 98,184.2 BTC at 08:00. From 02:00 to 08:00 it remained higher by about 3.05%, but over the latest three hours it dropped by roughly 0.76%. It only represents the open interest of this one contract; an increase or decrease in OI by itself cannot identify long-vs-short direction, nor does it equal total positions across all exchanges. Funding-rate descriptions indicate the settlement payment direction, while OI describes the scale of open positions. Even when both move at the same time, you still cannot determine which side the newly added positions belong to. In this article, the OI unit is in BTC, and it does not conflate dollar notional value with contract quantity.
The price boundaries given are: around 08:37, Binance spot BTCUSDT is about $84,639, down about 0.17% over the past 24 hours and still below $85,000. Therefore, the more prudent description right now is that “the single-contract settlement funding rate has been lifted from a low level; OI first repaired and then dipped slightly; and price has not yet reclaimed the key level.” It is not “longs have fully returned.” A positive funding rate reflects the payment direction between longs and shorts for that settlement period; it does not mean spot net buying. Next, you need to see whether subsequent settled funding rates and whether OI expand again, and whether price can reclaim the level with complete hourly closes. If you look at only one instantaneous funding rate value—or extrapolate short-term OI changes to the whole market—the conclusion will inevitably be overstated.
#BTC
