Bitcoin (BTC) surpasses the $85,000 mark as the volume of sell orders near market price declines, but ETF outflows and weak spot buying power mean the ability to sustain the upward momentum has not yet been confirmed.

Expectations for “Uptober,” the crypto market’s rally momentum in October, are being supported by Q3 results and changes in interest rate expectations. However, the gap between positioning in the derivatives market and spot fund flows is something to watch.

MAIN CONTENT

• Buying absorbed the sell orders at $85,000 after nearly a week, but still failed to break above that level.

• Bitcoin’s long/short ratio is back above 1, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows.

• Sell orders worth $136.72 million in the $89,000–$109,000 range on Coinbase may hinder the rally.

ETF cash flows cast doubt on the $85,000 breakout rally

Spot buying pressure is not strong enough to confirm Bitcoin’s $85,000 breakout. Outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. increase the risk that the price will not hold the level it just surpassed.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended September with net outflow sessions, ending a nine-day streak that collectively drew $3.1 billion in total. According to information shared by Coin Bureau on X, improvements in liquidity expectations have not translated into strong spot buying power.

Fund(s) or fund group Net inflows/Outflows (ETF) Spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. Total net inflow of $3.1 billion A nine-day streak before the net outflow session Spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. Net outflow of $148.7 million Wednesday (4th session of the week) Fidelity FBTC net outflow of $125.6 million Wednesday BlackRock IBIT net outflow of $9.5 million Wednesday, ending the nine-day streak of capital inflows

Fidelity FBTC leads the amount of withdrawals in the session. It is still unclear whether this is the start of a prolonged withdrawal cycle; if funds keep leaving the ETFs, Bitcoin could face additional pressure.

The spot market is still facing BTC sell orders worth $136.72 million in the $89,000–$109,000 range on Coinbase. This supply could become resistance if buying does not improve, although the sell orders near the $85,000 level have already been absorbed.

Source: Coinglass/X

Factors supporting expectations for Uptober

Bitcoin is supported by a reduction in sell orders near the market price and increasing expectations that the Fed may pause rate hikes. These factors may enable prices to move higher if buying pressure picks up.

According to Glassnode, most of the sell orders above the BTC price have disappeared. Buying absorbed the sell orders at $85,000 after nearly a week without successfully breaking above that level, reducing obstacles in the nearest price zone. However, further resistance on Coinbase still remains.

Source: Glassnode/X

FedWatch data shows the probability of rate hikes falling as expectations for a pause grow stronger. At the same time, Bitcoin’s long/short ratio on CoinGlass returned above 1, reflecting increased long positions in the derivatives market.

Indicator Data Meaning for Bitcoin Price movement of BTC in Q3 +42% Lays the foundation for expectations of Q4 upward momentum Average Q4 return in history Over 70% The basis for seasonal expectations Rate hike probability per FedWatch Decreases from 70% to 26% Reflects growing expectations for a pause in rate hikes Long/short ratio per CoinGlass Above 1 Indicates increasing long positioning

Q4 was one of Bitcoin’s strongest-performing quarters. The developments in October will play an important role in the early-quarter rally momentum, but historical data is not sufficient to confirm that BTC will repeat its previous return levels.

What does Bitcoin need to avoid a failed breakout?

Bitcoin needs stronger spot buying power to maintain its momentum above $85,000. ETF cash flows and the ability to absorb sell orders above the price are two factors that help assess the durability of the rally.

Outflows from the ETF appear when rate-cut expectations cool down, even though the probability of rate hikes is also decreasing. Therefore, expectations of a more favorable liquidity environment are not reflected evenly in institutional capital flows and derivatives positioning.

If the ETF continues to see outflows while spot buying pressure is weak, sell orders above the market price may prevent Bitcoin from sustaining its upward momentum. In that case, breaking above $85,000 could risk turning into a false bullish signal, which would be unfavorable for long positions opened after the breakout.

Summary

Bitcoin broke above $85,000 amid declining sell orders near the price and improving liquidity expectations. However, weaker ETF fund flows and supply from sell orders above the market mean the uptrend still needs to be reinforced by stronger spot buying.

Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-vuot-85-000-usd-uptober-co-dang-tao-bay-tang-gia/

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