U.S. stock market closed on Friday (Reuters/AP, as of 08:17 JST): Dow Jones 51176.96 +0.49%, S&P 7722.72 +0.73%, Nasdaq 27190.86 +1.19%. Russell 2000 +0.9%. On a weekly basis, S&P about -0.3%, Dow -1.26%, Nasdaq +0.45%. The intraday highs were not held: at 10:14 U.S. Eastern, the S&P was up 1.02% and the Nasdaq up 1.66%.
What triggered it: the September nonfarm payrolls beat by +290k; Reuters expected +90k. Unemployment rate was 4.2%; July and August were revised down by a total of 60k. Don’t mix up the October rate-hike probabilities: Reuters cited CME close at 22.7% (prior trading day 24.4%, one week earlier 64.2%); CNBC later that night had FedWatch at 17% and Kalshi at 18%. For a December hike, CNBC said FedWatch is still above 75%. Next FOMC meeting is on October 28. The 10-year U.S. Treasury page at FT showed 5.28%; the Thursday high around 5.34% is still in play.
After Brent briefly broke below 100 during the day, FT at 22:52 BST reported 102.73; Trump said he will not impose a diesel export ban.
Asia: Spot markets have already closed on Friday. Nikkei 68309.46 -0.94%, Hang Seng around 23972 -2.6%. Spot markets closed on Saturday. Futures are the first expression: Nikkei CME December +1390 to 69910 (Nikkei 05:47 JST); DAX futures 0 points at 69950 +1300, implying a spot premium of about 1640.
Individual stocks: Nvidia closed +1.3% (not the intraday +2.5%), Tesla +4.7%, Nike -3.6%. Toshiba plans to double its HDD production capacity before FY2027 and about ¥60 billion in the Philippines; Western Digital and Seagate each about -10%.
BTC gave back the nonfarm pop over the weekend. MyTrade 10/3 07:00 UTC+8 reference 84552, down about -0.19% over 24 hours; range about 84254-86813. OKX Friday high was 87238. Farside 10/2 at 06:12 was still a horizontal line; the Chinese script labeled +102.7 million as 10/2, consistent with the already-settled 10/1; Friday ETFs were not confirmed.
Mechanism: Stocks in the green are due to rate-hike timing being pushed out, not because jobs improved. Bonds didn’t follow. In Asia, wait for Monday’s spot to print versus 69910.
Are you watching Monday’s Asia-session spot more, or whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate can break away from 5.28-5.34?
#Binance #BTC #Crypto #市场分析 #U.S. stocks
This does not constitute investment advice; trading involves risk.
What triggered it: the September nonfarm payrolls beat by +290k; Reuters expected +90k. Unemployment rate was 4.2%; July and August were revised down by a total of 60k. Don’t mix up the October rate-hike probabilities: Reuters cited CME close at 22.7% (prior trading day 24.4%, one week earlier 64.2%); CNBC later that night had FedWatch at 17% and Kalshi at 18%. For a December hike, CNBC said FedWatch is still above 75%. Next FOMC meeting is on October 28. The 10-year U.S. Treasury page at FT showed 5.28%; the Thursday high around 5.34% is still in play.
After Brent briefly broke below 100 during the day, FT at 22:52 BST reported 102.73; Trump said he will not impose a diesel export ban.
Asia: Spot markets have already closed on Friday. Nikkei 68309.46 -0.94%, Hang Seng around 23972 -2.6%. Spot markets closed on Saturday. Futures are the first expression: Nikkei CME December +1390 to 69910 (Nikkei 05:47 JST); DAX futures 0 points at 69950 +1300, implying a spot premium of about 1640.
Individual stocks: Nvidia closed +1.3% (not the intraday +2.5%), Tesla +4.7%, Nike -3.6%. Toshiba plans to double its HDD production capacity before FY2027 and about ¥60 billion in the Philippines; Western Digital and Seagate each about -10%.
BTC gave back the nonfarm pop over the weekend. MyTrade 10/3 07:00 UTC+8 reference 84552, down about -0.19% over 24 hours; range about 84254-86813. OKX Friday high was 87238. Farside 10/2 at 06:12 was still a horizontal line; the Chinese script labeled +102.7 million as 10/2, consistent with the already-settled 10/1; Friday ETFs were not confirmed.
Mechanism: Stocks in the green are due to rate-hike timing being pushed out, not because jobs improved. Bonds didn’t follow. In Asia, wait for Monday’s spot to print versus 69910.
Are you watching Monday’s Asia-session spot more, or whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate can break away from 5.28-5.34?
#Binance #BTC #Crypto #市场分析 #U.S. stocks
This does not constitute investment advice; trading involves risk.