#nfpwatch 🚨 SEPTEMBER: NON-FARM PAYROLLS (NFP) FAIL AND BEAT EXPECTATIONS — THE FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE FED'S PERSPECTIVE
The latest U.S. jobs report delivered a significant negative surprise.
🇺🇸 September Non-Farm Payrolls: +29K
🎯 Market forecast: +90K
📊 Unemployment rate: 4.2%
⬇️ Revised August: +133K
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. non-farm payroll employment rose by only 29,000 in September, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. August’s payroll growth was revised downward from +162K to +133K, while July was revised from +21K to -10K. Taken together, the July–August revisions reduced previously reported employment by 60,000 jobs.
📉 WHY THIS MATTERS FOR THE FED
Weaker employment data has changed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.
Reuters reported that market expectations for a rate hike in October fell sharply after the jobs report. However, the data does not automatically guarantee a rate cut or a major policy shift. Inflation remains a key factor for the Fed, and policymakers will continue to assess incoming economic data.
The labor market also does not appear, for now, to be broadly collapsing. BLS data showed that employment changed little in major industries, while average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September and increased 3.0% year over year.
🔹 Inflation data
🔹 U.S. Treasury bond yields
🔹 Strength of the U.S. dollar
🔹 Fed statements and policy expectations
🔹 Labor market trends
🔹 BTC and broader price movement in crypto
Now the market is focused on whether September’s weak hiring represents a temporary slowdown or part of a broader cooling trend.
The latest U.S. jobs report delivered a significant negative surprise.
🇺🇸 September Non-Farm Payrolls: +29K
🎯 Market forecast: +90K
📊 Unemployment rate: 4.2%
⬇️ Revised August: +133K
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. non-farm payroll employment rose by only 29,000 in September, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. August’s payroll growth was revised downward from +162K to +133K, while July was revised from +21K to -10K. Taken together, the July–August revisions reduced previously reported employment by 60,000 jobs.
📉 WHY THIS MATTERS FOR THE FED
Weaker employment data has changed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.
Reuters reported that market expectations for a rate hike in October fell sharply after the jobs report. However, the data does not automatically guarantee a rate cut or a major policy shift. Inflation remains a key factor for the Fed, and policymakers will continue to assess incoming economic data.
The labor market also does not appear, for now, to be broadly collapsing. BLS data showed that employment changed little in major industries, while average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September and increased 3.0% year over year.
🔹 Inflation data
🔹 U.S. Treasury bond yields
🔹 Strength of the U.S. dollar
🔹 Fed statements and policy expectations
🔹 Labor market trends
🔹 BTC and broader price movement in crypto
Now the market is focused on whether September’s weak hiring represents a temporary slowdown or part of a broader cooling trend.
