After reaching 87239, nobody followed—84500 is the real test
Today’s most unusual thing isn’t that BTC surged to 87239, but that after it surged, nobody followed. The current price is 85228, and it has been dumped by a full 2000 dollars from the 24-hour high.
The futures data is even more interesting: over the past couple of days, open interest has risen from a low level up to around 30,000, indicating that people entered at higher levels. When the price dropped back, this batch of longs is likely to be trapped. However, the funding rate has stayed near the zero line the whole time—bullish sentiment isn’t hot. Meanwhile, the long/short account ratio fell from 1.62 to 0.97, and shorts have actually increased.
I wouldn’t turn bearish immediately based on this structure, because with more shorts, there’s also a decent chance of a quick pump first and then a shakeout. If 84500–84600 can stop the sell-off and hold with declining volume, I’ll try a small position; I’ll place the stop-loss below 84000. If it breaks down with rising volume and the rebound can’t get back above, then it won’t be a pullback—I’ll leave directly.
The key isn’t how much it fell, but when 84500 is tested, whether there’s actually someone stepping in to buy. This is my personal review, not investment advice.
#BTC $BTC
Today’s most unusual thing isn’t that BTC surged to 87239, but that after it surged, nobody followed. The current price is 85228, and it has been dumped by a full 2000 dollars from the 24-hour high.
The futures data is even more interesting: over the past couple of days, open interest has risen from a low level up to around 30,000, indicating that people entered at higher levels. When the price dropped back, this batch of longs is likely to be trapped. However, the funding rate has stayed near the zero line the whole time—bullish sentiment isn’t hot. Meanwhile, the long/short account ratio fell from 1.62 to 0.97, and shorts have actually increased.
I wouldn’t turn bearish immediately based on this structure, because with more shorts, there’s also a decent chance of a quick pump first and then a shakeout. If 84500–84600 can stop the sell-off and hold with declining volume, I’ll try a small position; I’ll place the stop-loss below 84000. If it breaks down with rising volume and the rebound can’t get back above, then it won’t be a pullback—I’ll leave directly.
The key isn’t how much it fell, but when 84500 is tested, whether there’s actually someone stepping in to buy. This is my personal review, not investment advice.
#BTC $BTC