#比特币站上8.6万美元涨2.99%
Yes, the money is back—but something didn’t come back with it..
💥 最新消息群里说
Most people are seeing Kalshi needing to raise another $1 billion, its valuation jumping to $40 billion, and Blockchain.com getting ready to relist. They think the crypto primary market has finally recovered.. Put these things together, though, and the picture isn’t so optimistic..
What’s truly worth watching is a not-so-pleasant number: among the 20 largest digital-asset custody firms, only 4 have their share prices still above the net asset value of their own holdings..
You have to understand how these types of companies operate to grasp the weight of this.. Their earliest play was that the stock price stayed higher than the value of what they held. That way, they could keep issuing new shares to exchange for coins, and as the coin supply grew and the stock price rose again, existing shareholders weren’t diluted.. The premium is the fuel for this whole cycle..
Now the fuel is gone.. Most companies have fallen below net asset value, and issuing more stock would just dilute themselves—so the financing engine essentially stalls.. The same signal shows up elsewhere too: a few platforms that have only recently listed are trading 50% to 80% below their post-IPO highs..
So this isn’t a lack-of-money problem. It’s that money has become picky.. Investors no longer want to pay a premium for “a crypto wrapper.” They only recognize liquidation value..
What’s interesting is that at the same time, Kalshi can double its valuation.. The difference is that it sells event contracts—something with real demand—rather than packaging the holding of “some asset.” The market is willing to pay for demand, but not really for stories..
If this trend continues, what may truly get repriced isn’t the coin price—it may be the value of the act of “holding crypto through public markets” itself.. For custody firms to survive, they’ll likely need to transform the wrapper into an income instrument—shifting toward staking, yield-bearing strategies, and even infrastructure..
Here’s the twist.. The day a premium for this kind of company reappears, it might not be because the market is getting hot again. More likely, they’re no longer telling the story by hoarding coins..
Yes, the money is back—but something didn’t come back with it..
💥 最新消息群里说
Most people are seeing Kalshi needing to raise another $1 billion, its valuation jumping to $40 billion, and Blockchain.com getting ready to relist. They think the crypto primary market has finally recovered.. Put these things together, though, and the picture isn’t so optimistic..
What’s truly worth watching is a not-so-pleasant number: among the 20 largest digital-asset custody firms, only 4 have their share prices still above the net asset value of their own holdings..
You have to understand how these types of companies operate to grasp the weight of this.. Their earliest play was that the stock price stayed higher than the value of what they held. That way, they could keep issuing new shares to exchange for coins, and as the coin supply grew and the stock price rose again, existing shareholders weren’t diluted.. The premium is the fuel for this whole cycle..
Now the fuel is gone.. Most companies have fallen below net asset value, and issuing more stock would just dilute themselves—so the financing engine essentially stalls.. The same signal shows up elsewhere too: a few platforms that have only recently listed are trading 50% to 80% below their post-IPO highs..
So this isn’t a lack-of-money problem. It’s that money has become picky.. Investors no longer want to pay a premium for “a crypto wrapper.” They only recognize liquidation value..
What’s interesting is that at the same time, Kalshi can double its valuation.. The difference is that it sells event contracts—something with real demand—rather than packaging the holding of “some asset.” The market is willing to pay for demand, but not really for stories..
If this trend continues, what may truly get repriced isn’t the coin price—it may be the value of the act of “holding crypto through public markets” itself.. For custody firms to survive, they’ll likely need to transform the wrapper into an income instrument—shifting toward staking, yield-bearing strategies, and even infrastructure..
Here’s the twist.. The day a premium for this kind of company reappears, it might not be because the market is getting hot again. More likely, they’re no longer telling the story by hoarding coins..
