#大非农 Beijing time 20:30 to release the U.S. September non-farm payrolls. Market expects an increase of 84,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and average hourly earnings month-over-month +0.3%. As the core reference for the Fed’s October policy decision: prior Fed officials were collectively dovish, so the probability of a rate hike in October has fallen.
Positives: Non-farm payrolls increase <84,000, unemployment rate rises, and wage growth comes in below expectations—further pushing down the probability of a rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar move lower, benefiting gold, U.S. stocks, and crypto assets. The August employment data being revised down is an additional positive.
Negatives: Non-farm payrolls >84,000, wages rise above expectations, and employment proves resilient—rate-hike expectations bounce back. The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise, weighing on risk assets.
Outlook: Volatility tends to increase before and after the data release, and contracts may be prone to intraday “needle” moves. Key to watch: new jobs added, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and the size of revisions to prior values.
After the data lands: September non-farm payrolls added 29,000, versus the 84,000 expected; unemployment rate 4.2%; hourly earnings month-over-month 0.1%, along with a significant downward revision to the prior value. The probability of a rate hike falls further; the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields decline; and gold, crypto, and U.S. stock index futures strengthen in the short term.
Outlook: Confirmed weakening in employment suggests labor-market cooling, making a pause in October’s rate hikes essentially a done deal. Near term, risk assets are boosted; in the medium to long term, we still need to watch the subsequent core PCE inflation data.
Positives: Non-farm payrolls increase <84,000, unemployment rate rises, and wage growth comes in below expectations—further pushing down the probability of a rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar move lower, benefiting gold, U.S. stocks, and crypto assets. The August employment data being revised down is an additional positive.
Negatives: Non-farm payrolls >84,000, wages rise above expectations, and employment proves resilient—rate-hike expectations bounce back. The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise, weighing on risk assets.
Outlook: Volatility tends to increase before and after the data release, and contracts may be prone to intraday “needle” moves. Key to watch: new jobs added, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and the size of revisions to prior values.
After the data lands: September non-farm payrolls added 29,000, versus the 84,000 expected; unemployment rate 4.2%; hourly earnings month-over-month 0.1%, along with a significant downward revision to the prior value. The probability of a rate hike falls further; the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields decline; and gold, crypto, and U.S. stock index futures strengthen in the short term.
Outlook: Confirmed weakening in employment suggests labor-market cooling, making a pause in October’s rate hikes essentially a done deal. Near term, risk assets are boosted; in the medium to long term, we still need to watch the subsequent core PCE inflation data.