The labor market deals a severe blow to expectations!
The Nonfarm Payrolls job data for September came in disastrous: only 29 thousand jobs, versus expectations that pointed to 90 thousand. A real shock for the markets.
And the worst? The August read was revised downward to 133 thousand, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% after it had been 4.1%.
What does this mean? The big picture has changed completely:
- Hiring growth slows sharply
- Unemployment rises again
- U.S. bond yields fall
- October rate-hike bets collapse — Reuters says the odds of the Fed raising rates have fallen to only 12%–20% after the report.
Are we looking at a slowdown? Not yet.
Layoff rates remain low, and the current weakness may be due more to seasonal factors than a full collapse in demand for labor.
But the market’s message is very clear:
Weak hiring data = lower yields = less pressure from the Fed = an opportunity for risky assets to breathe.
This puts Bitcoin, Ethereum, the Nasdaq, and gold right at the center of the action.
The question now is no longer "Will the Fed raise rates in October?"
The real question has become:
"How far does the job market have to collapse for the Fed to completely change course and begin easing?"
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