Anthropic’s IPO news has been trending all day—people have already dissected the timeline and valuation. So let’s get straight to the order book.
The big-bet long position has already been fully taken profit on: 82,800 twice and 83,000 once. I’m currently flat. The key is the employment data. If ADP employment comes in at 90,000 and above expectations, and if NFP is strong too, rate-hike expectations will heat up again—putting pressure on Bitcoin. If things come in weak, there’s a higher chance of staying put rather than taking action, which would give the market some breathing room. Long-end U.S. Treasuries are above 5.6%, and macro pressure hasn’t gone away. ETF flows turned into net outflows over the past two days: BTC profit-taking has increased to an in-year high, and spot demand is slowing. The Anthropic IPO is a long-term “liquidity drain” variable, but in the short term it’s not the main contradiction.
Before the data is released, I won’t bet on direction. Once it lands, I’ll look for levels—no chasing rallies, no selling into drops. #BTC #ETH #非农 $BTC $ETH
The big-bet long position has already been fully taken profit on: 82,800 twice and 83,000 once. I’m currently flat. The key is the employment data. If ADP employment comes in at 90,000 and above expectations, and if NFP is strong too, rate-hike expectations will heat up again—putting pressure on Bitcoin. If things come in weak, there’s a higher chance of staying put rather than taking action, which would give the market some breathing room. Long-end U.S. Treasuries are above 5.6%, and macro pressure hasn’t gone away. ETF flows turned into net outflows over the past two days: BTC profit-taking has increased to an in-year high, and spot demand is slowing. The Anthropic IPO is a long-term “liquidity drain” variable, but in the short term it’s not the main contradiction.
Before the data is released, I won’t bet on direction. Once it lands, I’ll look for levels—no chasing rallies, no selling into drops. #BTC #ETH #非农 $BTC $ETH