U.S. nonfarm payrolls disappoint—only 29,000 added! The Fed’s odds of a rate hike in October plunge to 15%, and Bitcoin moves toward $87,000

The U.S. employment market suddenly cooled sharply, and Bitcoin (BTC) also moved in on $87,000.
The U.S. Department of Labor’s latest release shows that September nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 29,000, far below Reuters’ survey estimate of 90,000. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. August’s newly added jobs were revised down from the originally reported 162,000 to 133,000.
Weaker-than-expected data quickly changed market expectations for the Fed’s interest-rate bets. Reuters noted that the probability of another rate hike in October fell from about 25% before the nonfarm payrolls release to around 15%; some market pricing at one point dropped as low as about 12%.
September added 29,000 jobs—less than one-third of the market’s estimate of 90,000, and also clearly below August’s 13.3 million after revision. The unemployment rate did not stay at 4.1% as the market expected; instead, it rose to 4.2%.
Reuters points out that there is still no sign of large-scale layoffs. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time remains near historical lows, but the pace of corporate hiring has clearly slowed, indicating that the US labor market is losing the strong momentum it had earlier.
For the Fed, this reduces the need for consecutive rate hikes in October.
Fed’s October rate-hike probability drops from 25% to 15%
Before the Non-Farm Payrolls are released, the market is still pricing in about a 25% to 28% chance, believing the Fed may raise rates again at its October 27–28 meeting. After the data is released, this probability quickly drops to about 15%, and in some trading sessions it may be as low as 12%.
At present, the market’s mainstream expectation has shifted to the Fed pausing rate hikes in October.
But this does not mean the entire rate-hike cycle has officially ended. Reuters notes that the market is still heavily betting that there will be another rate hike in December, with the related probability still close to 90%.
BTC briefly touched $86,984—only $8,700 short of $87,000
Before the Non-Farm Payrolls were released, Bitcoin had already maintained strong momentum; once the data came out, it moved even closer to $87,000.
As of the latest market data:
BTC: approximately $86,667
Intraday high: approximately $86,984
Intraday low: approximately $83,457
Intraday gain: approximately 3.8%
In other words, BTC is already very close to the important short-term threshold of $87,000.
And this level is not simply a psychological round number. Recent CoinGlass and Glassnode data show that after BTC broke through $85,000 and its existing sell walls were cleared, new liquidation liquidity started to concentrate above $87,000 to $87,300.
Once it breaks through, it may trigger short-covering again, amplifying short-term volatility.
Only when US Treasury yields fall in sync is it really a true positive for BTC.
The biggest market impact from the Non-Farm Payrolls is not just “one fewer Fed rate hike”—it’s that US Treasury yields immediately drop.
Reuters’ latest data shows that after the data was released, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell by about 6 basis points; prior to that, the 10-year yield had at one point reached as high as 5.34%, a 24-year high.
This is very important for BTC. In the past few days, even though PCE inflation has cooled, BTC has repeatedly failed to hold above $85,000. One of the biggest reasons is that US Treasury yields have stayed above 5% for a long time.
Now that Non-Farm Payrolls came in unexpectedly weak, if long-term Treasury yields continue to fall, BTC’s opportunity cost and valuation pressure will ease. This is more important than merely “the Fed not raising rates in October.”
US stocks also rose first; the market viewed weak Non-Farm Payrolls as a positive. The market’s first reaction to the data was clearly bullish. Reuters shows that after the Non-Farm Payrolls were released, Dow futures rose about 0.85%; S&P 500 futures rose about 0.79%; and Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1.01%.
This shows that the market currently interprets “weak employment” as the economy cooling, but not weak enough to signal a recession; the Fed therefore has even more reason to pause rate hikes.
This is usually one of the combinations that risk assets like the most. Note that September’s Non-Farm Payrolls may be affected by seasonal adjustments and the labor day holiday being later than usual. Reuters, citing analysis, points out that there is currently no sign of companies making large-scale layoffs; some data fluctuations may be related to seasonal factors. Meanwhile, US corporate earnings and consumption are still maintaining a certain level of resilience.
The market is currently not trading “the US is about to fall into a recession.” Instead, it’s trading “there is no need for the Fed to keep hitting the brakes in October.” That’s exactly why after Non-Farm Payrolls came in far below expectations, US stocks and BTC actually rose.
“US Non-Farm Payrolls come in unexpectedly low—only +29,000! Fed’s October rate-hike probability plunges to 15%, and Bitcoin is pressing toward $87,000” This article was first published on (Blockcast).