$180 AAVE—dare to chase it?
First, look at the surface: in the past 24 hours it’s up 11%-13%, in 7 days up 24%-26%, and in 30 days up 45%. Market cap is $280M, circulating supply is 15.4M, with a hard cap at 16M—almost fully circulating, with no big unlocks to dump. The daily chart has flipped back to strength, the 4-hour timeframe is slightly bullish, and volume is expanding. Every indicator is basically shouting one message: the V4 narrative + buybacks, and AAVE can return to its peak.
First thing: V4 deposits have broken $1B—RWA is truly landing.
Around Oct 1, Aave Labs confirmed: V4 deposits surpassed $1B, with active loans between $310M and $400M. It’s been expanded to Arc and Base.
Most importantly is the Equities Hub on Base—non-US users can tokenize stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla) using Coinbase tokens as collateral, borrow USDC, with Chainlink providing pricing.
Second thing: buybacks are coming—but burning hasn’t officially arrived.
The DAO’s annual budget is about $50M for buybacks. Depending on market conditions, it’s buying roughly 250K to 1.75M AAVE per week, and putting it into ecosystem reserves—not directly burning it. Stani has said they’re evaluating permanent burning, but there’s no official proposal or timeline yet.
The market is pricing in “buybacks turning into burns” early. What you’re buying isn’t AAVE right now—it’s the expectation that Stani might burn the coins.
Third thing: short squeeze + technicals—will $180 be a breakout retest, or a chase-and-fail trap?
Futures volume is about $1.09B, open interest about $535M. In the past 2 days within one hour, shorts were liquidated around $350K at three liquidations, and throughout the day short liquidations were the majority. The zone from 180 to 187 has leverage pushing it.
Resistance above: 185-188 is today’s high area; 190-200 are round numbers and short-term targets; 220-230 is the supply from before September. Don’t talk about 200+ unless it can stand above 190 with volume.
Above resistance: 185-188 → 190-200 → 220-230
Below support: 170-172 (today’s open / breakout zone) → 164-165 (Oct 2 low) → 158-160 → 145
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Lightly try longs near $180 with a stop-loss at $168. First target $187, second target $195. Cut half at $187.
Conservative:
Wait for 170-172 before considering a long, stop-loss at $163. A better entry is 158-162. If it doesn’t give you that, keep a small position—don’t rush.
Breakout style:
Only consider chasing if it can stand firmly above $190 with volume, and the pullback doesn’t break 185. Targets 200 and 210. If it’s a fake breakout, give up.
Bears:
If it pushes up from 187-190 without strength, you can take a light position to short the pullback. Stop-loss at 196, target 172. Don’t sit on shorts near 164.
First, look at the surface: in the past 24 hours it’s up 11%-13%, in 7 days up 24%-26%, and in 30 days up 45%. Market cap is $280M, circulating supply is 15.4M, with a hard cap at 16M—almost fully circulating, with no big unlocks to dump. The daily chart has flipped back to strength, the 4-hour timeframe is slightly bullish, and volume is expanding. Every indicator is basically shouting one message: the V4 narrative + buybacks, and AAVE can return to its peak.
First thing: V4 deposits have broken $1B—RWA is truly landing.
Around Oct 1, Aave Labs confirmed: V4 deposits surpassed $1B, with active loans between $310M and $400M. It’s been expanded to Arc and Base.
Most importantly is the Equities Hub on Base—non-US users can tokenize stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla) using Coinbase tokens as collateral, borrow USDC, with Chainlink providing pricing.
Second thing: buybacks are coming—but burning hasn’t officially arrived.
The DAO’s annual budget is about $50M for buybacks. Depending on market conditions, it’s buying roughly 250K to 1.75M AAVE per week, and putting it into ecosystem reserves—not directly burning it. Stani has said they’re evaluating permanent burning, but there’s no official proposal or timeline yet.
The market is pricing in “buybacks turning into burns” early. What you’re buying isn’t AAVE right now—it’s the expectation that Stani might burn the coins.
Third thing: short squeeze + technicals—will $180 be a breakout retest, or a chase-and-fail trap?
Futures volume is about $1.09B, open interest about $535M. In the past 2 days within one hour, shorts were liquidated around $350K at three liquidations, and throughout the day short liquidations were the majority. The zone from 180 to 187 has leverage pushing it.
Resistance above: 185-188 is today’s high area; 190-200 are round numbers and short-term targets; 220-230 is the supply from before September. Don’t talk about 200+ unless it can stand above 190 with volume.
Above resistance: 185-188 → 190-200 → 220-230
Below support: 170-172 (today’s open / breakout zone) → 164-165 (Oct 2 low) → 158-160 → 145
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Lightly try longs near $180 with a stop-loss at $168. First target $187, second target $195. Cut half at $187.
Conservative:
Wait for 170-172 before considering a long, stop-loss at $163. A better entry is 158-162. If it doesn’t give you that, keep a small position—don’t rush.
Breakout style:
Only consider chasing if it can stand firmly above $190 with volume, and the pullback doesn’t break 185. Targets 200 and 210. If it’s a fake breakout, give up.
Bears:
If it pushes up from 187-190 without strength, you can take a light position to short the pullback. Stop-loss at 196, target 172. Don’t sit on shorts near 164.
