Non-farm payroll blowout, sudden drop in rate-hike expectations—yet BTC violently rockets past $87,000? This “bad news = good news” script: is it the start of a bull market or a trap to lure buyers at the top? 🔍
Today’s absolute protagonist is U.S. employment data. In September, only 29,000 jobs were added, far below the market’s expectation of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Combined with a 60,000-job downward revision across July and August, the employment market cooling signal is already very clear. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of an October rate hike has plunged from 28% before the data release to 17%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged rises to 83%. Swap contracts indicate the market is even no longer fully pricing in a complete additional rate hike for this year. Macro expectations have therefore turned meaningfully more dovish.
Dovish expectations directly ignite risk assets. 📈 Spot gold breaks through $4,200/oz to set an all-time high. In just 24 hours, $BTC surged 3.42% to break $87,000. USDT market share has fallen to 6.3%, with capital clearly flowing back into risk assets. On-chain signals are also cooperating: BTC open interest increases by about $2.3 billion, and the funding rate rises; over the past 24 hours, short liquidations exceed $120 million; spot ETFs resume net inflows of $103 million—“Uptober” has gotten off to a good start. BTC market share is again pressing toward the 60% threshold, suggesting capital is still treating BTC as the preferred choice. The rotation into altcoins’ “season” needs clearer signals of rate cuts actually landing before it can truly start.
But even amid the celebration, there are undertows. 🚨 NEAR Intents was attacked, resulting in a loss of $3.8 million (the team responded quickly and committed to compensating). Aave V3 had about $305,000 extracted due to a third-party adapter vulnerability. Zano was forced to roll back the blockchain after being minted astronomical counterfeit coins due to a vulnerability. Meanwhile, a leading South Korean exchange saw its operating profit in the first half decline 78% year over year. The “soft landing” macro narrative alongside frequent on-chain security incidents is forming a set of contradictory footnotes.
The compliance and institutionalization narrative is accelerating as well. Circle is urging the EU to relax stablecoin reserve rules via MiCA revisions; Absa Bank in Africa becomes the first bank to offer digital-asset custody; BNB Chain tokenized stocks and ETF market value surpass $1 billion, accounting for about 30% of that segment; a Utexo project supported by Tether plans to “bring USDT home” for deployment on the Bitcoin network. Taken together, these developments point to one key judgment: crypto is embedding into mainstream financial infrastructure at an unprecedented speed.
📌 My take:
① In the short term, weak employment + dovish expectations + a technical breakout create a triple resonance. BTC is targeting the $87,000–$88,000 resistance zone. If the October 14 CPI also cooperates, the room for pullbacks should be relatively limited.
② BTC’s market share rebounding back to 60% suggests capital is still clustering together. The real rotation into altcoins needs to wait for dovish expectations to be fully realized or for clearer signals of looser liquidity.
③ High funding rates + high open positions mean leverage is already crowded. Once good news is priced in or a sudden negative catalyst hits, sharp needle-like spikes can easily occur—be cautious with high-leverage positions.
In this rally today, do you see it as the early pricing of a “soft landing” script, or a false prosperity before the night of a recession? Feel free to discuss your view in the comments below. 👇
This is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please view market volatility rationally.
Today’s absolute protagonist is U.S. employment data. In September, only 29,000 jobs were added, far below the market’s expectation of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Combined with a 60,000-job downward revision across July and August, the employment market cooling signal is already very clear. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of an October rate hike has plunged from 28% before the data release to 17%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged rises to 83%. Swap contracts indicate the market is even no longer fully pricing in a complete additional rate hike for this year. Macro expectations have therefore turned meaningfully more dovish.
Dovish expectations directly ignite risk assets. 📈 Spot gold breaks through $4,200/oz to set an all-time high. In just 24 hours, $BTC surged 3.42% to break $87,000. USDT market share has fallen to 6.3%, with capital clearly flowing back into risk assets. On-chain signals are also cooperating: BTC open interest increases by about $2.3 billion, and the funding rate rises; over the past 24 hours, short liquidations exceed $120 million; spot ETFs resume net inflows of $103 million—“Uptober” has gotten off to a good start. BTC market share is again pressing toward the 60% threshold, suggesting capital is still treating BTC as the preferred choice. The rotation into altcoins’ “season” needs clearer signals of rate cuts actually landing before it can truly start.
But even amid the celebration, there are undertows. 🚨 NEAR Intents was attacked, resulting in a loss of $3.8 million (the team responded quickly and committed to compensating). Aave V3 had about $305,000 extracted due to a third-party adapter vulnerability. Zano was forced to roll back the blockchain after being minted astronomical counterfeit coins due to a vulnerability. Meanwhile, a leading South Korean exchange saw its operating profit in the first half decline 78% year over year. The “soft landing” macro narrative alongside frequent on-chain security incidents is forming a set of contradictory footnotes.
The compliance and institutionalization narrative is accelerating as well. Circle is urging the EU to relax stablecoin reserve rules via MiCA revisions; Absa Bank in Africa becomes the first bank to offer digital-asset custody; BNB Chain tokenized stocks and ETF market value surpass $1 billion, accounting for about 30% of that segment; a Utexo project supported by Tether plans to “bring USDT home” for deployment on the Bitcoin network. Taken together, these developments point to one key judgment: crypto is embedding into mainstream financial infrastructure at an unprecedented speed.
📌 My take:
① In the short term, weak employment + dovish expectations + a technical breakout create a triple resonance. BTC is targeting the $87,000–$88,000 resistance zone. If the October 14 CPI also cooperates, the room for pullbacks should be relatively limited.
② BTC’s market share rebounding back to 60% suggests capital is still clustering together. The real rotation into altcoins needs to wait for dovish expectations to be fully realized or for clearer signals of looser liquidity.
③ High funding rates + high open positions mean leverage is already crowded. Once good news is priced in or a sudden negative catalyst hits, sharp needle-like spikes can easily occur—be cautious with high-leverage positions.
In this rally today, do you see it as the early pricing of a “soft landing” script, or a false prosperity before the night of a recession? Feel free to discuss your view in the comments below. 👇
This is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please view market volatility rationally.