Nonfarm data is favorable, but the Fed still refuses to release rate-cut expectations🔥
Is the Fed being a bit too stubborn? The Fed has been stressing that the labor market still has resilience, and that wages are also a source of inflation pressure.
In September, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, far below the market’s expectation of about 90,000; the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month over month, and increased 3% year over year. What’s more, employment data for July and August was revised down in total by 60,000.
Job growth can’t seem to pick up, unemployment is trending upward, and wage growth is also slowing. Previously, what the market worried about was that inflation might not fall, prompting the Fed to keep hiking rates. If employment continues to cool, will the Fed still dare to keep raising rates?
Now, although rate-cut expectations haven’t been fully unleashed yet, rate-hike expectations have already come down. The Fed is still publicly guarding against inflation, but the employment data has started putting pressure on it.
If future CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to weaken, rate-cut expectations will grow, and a new bull market will return#美国9月非农仅增2.9万人失业率升至4.2% $BTC
Is the Fed being a bit too stubborn? The Fed has been stressing that the labor market still has resilience, and that wages are also a source of inflation pressure.
In September, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, far below the market’s expectation of about 90,000; the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month over month, and increased 3% year over year. What’s more, employment data for July and August was revised down in total by 60,000.
Job growth can’t seem to pick up, unemployment is trending upward, and wage growth is also slowing. Previously, what the market worried about was that inflation might not fall, prompting the Fed to keep hiking rates. If employment continues to cool, will the Fed still dare to keep raising rates?
Now, although rate-cut expectations haven’t been fully unleashed yet, rate-hike expectations have already come down. The Fed is still publicly guarding against inflation, but the employment data has started putting pressure on it.
If future CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to weaken, rate-cut expectations will grow, and a new bull market will return#美国9月非农仅增2.9万人失业率升至4.2% $BTC