Staring at this Non-Farm Payroll data on the road, I fell into deep thought.
The numbers are clearly below expectations, which is also bearish for the US dollar.
By normal logic, with employment so weak, expectations for another rate hike in October should continue to be pushed down—this would normally be good news for risk assets.
But there hasn’t been a huge surge. On the other hand, a lot of this was already priced in during the day, so the current market action feels a bit subtle.
The data coming in unexpectedly hot is so good that it seems the market has started to worry instead—what if the economy is already moving toward a recession?
After the data was released, BTC only briefly spiked up, then immediately entered consolidation. It didn’t break out in a particularly strong way.
I have a hypothesis: if such a big macro tailwind can’t keep the price pushing higher, then this kind of走势 is often more worth being cautious about than a straightforward drop.
On the other hand, the probability of a rate hike in October has already been lowered to 16%, but there’s still some time before the actual decision. Based on the Fed’s track record, it won’t be a smooth ride—watch out for hawkish signals again as soon as next week.
As for the specific market structure, I’ll check it once I’m back and go live. After I review it, I’ll report back.
The numbers are clearly below expectations, which is also bearish for the US dollar.
By normal logic, with employment so weak, expectations for another rate hike in October should continue to be pushed down—this would normally be good news for risk assets.
But there hasn’t been a huge surge. On the other hand, a lot of this was already priced in during the day, so the current market action feels a bit subtle.
The data coming in unexpectedly hot is so good that it seems the market has started to worry instead—what if the economy is already moving toward a recession?
After the data was released, BTC only briefly spiked up, then immediately entered consolidation. It didn’t break out in a particularly strong way.
I have a hypothesis: if such a big macro tailwind can’t keep the price pushing higher, then this kind of走势 is often more worth being cautious about than a straightforward drop.
On the other hand, the probability of a rate hike in October has already been lowered to 16%, but there’s still some time before the actual decision. Based on the Fed’s track record, it won’t be a smooth ride—watch out for hawkish signals again as soon as next week.
As for the specific market structure, I’ll check it once I’m back and go live. After I review it, I’ll report back.