This nonfarm payroll report has pulled down expectations for a rate hike in October. The cooling comes from the data itself, not from officials’ remarks.
Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian said that in September, the number of new jobs added was only 29,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and hourly earnings increased by just 0.1% month-on-month. The data for July and August was also revised down by about 60,000 jobs. The labor force participation rate rose to 61.8%. Meanwhile, swap contracts indicate that the market no longer fully prices in a complete set of one full rate hike this year.
The impact of this data is not immediate: if CPI picks up again later, or if officials change their stance, expectations for a rate hike will return, and this assessment will become invalid.
👉 我每天盯的价位清单、判断更正，都先发群里。进来对着看
Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian said that in September, the number of new jobs added was only 29,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and hourly earnings increased by just 0.1% month-on-month. The data for July and August was also revised down by about 60,000 jobs. The labor force participation rate rose to 61.8%. Meanwhile, swap contracts indicate that the market no longer fully prices in a complete set of one full rate hike this year.
The impact of this data is not immediate: if CPI picks up again later, or if officials change their stance, expectations for a rate hike will return, and this assessment will become invalid.
👉 我每天盯的价位清单、判断更正，都先发群里。进来对着看