US September Nonfarm Payrolls has just been released, and it is significantly below expectations!
The US September jobs data was just released: new employment added only 290,000, far below the market expectation of about 900,000. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
More notably, August’s new jobs figure fell from the originally reported 1.62 million to 1.33 million.
For BTC, this is a near-term positive.
The reason is straightforward: labor market cooling would lower market expectations for the Fed to continue raising rates in October. Before the NFP release, the probability assigned by the market for another rate hike in October had already dropped to about 23%. Now that the data is clearly worse than expected, if US Treasury yields continue to ease, the interest-rate pressure BTC faces would be a bit lighter.
However, this report cannot be interpreted only as bullish.
The unemployment rate rising to 4.2% suggests the labor market is indeed weakening. A moderate slowdown is comfortable for risk assets, but if later employment and consumption also fall too quickly, the market could shift from thinking the Fed doesn’t need to hike again to worrying whether the economy might be heading toward trouble.
Before the data was released, BTC had already returned to around $86,000. And in September, US spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded approximately $2.65 billion in net inflows.
Liquidity has not dried up—this is one of the tougher supports for this round of rebound.
#比特币站上8.6万美元涨2.99%
The US September jobs data was just released: new employment added only 290,000, far below the market expectation of about 900,000. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
More notably, August’s new jobs figure fell from the originally reported 1.62 million to 1.33 million.
For BTC, this is a near-term positive.
The reason is straightforward: labor market cooling would lower market expectations for the Fed to continue raising rates in October. Before the NFP release, the probability assigned by the market for another rate hike in October had already dropped to about 23%. Now that the data is clearly worse than expected, if US Treasury yields continue to ease, the interest-rate pressure BTC faces would be a bit lighter.
However, this report cannot be interpreted only as bullish.
The unemployment rate rising to 4.2% suggests the labor market is indeed weakening. A moderate slowdown is comfortable for risk assets, but if later employment and consumption also fall too quickly, the market could shift from thinking the Fed doesn’t need to hike again to worrying whether the economy might be heading toward trouble.
Before the data was released, BTC had already returned to around $86,000. And in September, US spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded approximately $2.65 billion in net inflows.
Liquidity has not dried up—this is one of the tougher supports for this round of rebound.
#比特币站上8.6万美元涨2.99%
