NFP soft: 29k vs ~90k expected (BLS). Unemployment 4.2% (vs 4.1%), hourly wages +0.1% MoM (vs +0.3% expected).
Immediate reaction on $BTC : the 15m Kraken candle at 12:30 UTC rolled over down to $87,229, with volume spiking. Spot ~86.8k around 12:56 UTC (+2.3% on the session), $ETH ~2 756, $SOL ~122.5.
Interpretation: a cooler jobs market = less pressure for a new rate hike. Prediction markets price in a Fed pause around ~85% (CryptoPotato). This is no longer the “NFP filter to come” from this morning: the print is out, and the first test is to hold above ~86k.
Scenarios:
• Digestion: staying above 86k / retesting the high 87.2k without a flush
• Soft invalidation: net loss below 86k with DXY / yields resuming
Does the soft print justify keeping the $BTC bid, or was it mostly a covering spike?
#Bitcoin #NFP #Crypto
Immediate reaction on $BTC : the 15m Kraken candle at 12:30 UTC rolled over down to $87,229, with volume spiking. Spot ~86.8k around 12:56 UTC (+2.3% on the session), $ETH ~2 756, $SOL ~122.5.
Interpretation: a cooler jobs market = less pressure for a new rate hike. Prediction markets price in a Fed pause around ~85% (CryptoPotato). This is no longer the “NFP filter to come” from this morning: the print is out, and the first test is to hold above ~86k.
Scenarios:
• Digestion: staying above 86k / retesting the high 87.2k without a flush
• Soft invalidation: net loss below 86k with DXY / yields resuming
Does the soft print justify keeping the $BTC bid, or was it mostly a covering spike?
#Bitcoin #NFP #Crypto
