US September non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000 (expected 90,000). The prior reading was revised down to 133,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data was released, bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October were sharply trimmed—according to Polymarket, the probability of no rate change at the October 28 meeting has already reached 84%, while a 25-basis-point hike is only 16%. But it’s still too early to say “rate cuts”: the probability of a cut is less than 1%, and August core PCE remains at 3.0%. In the short term, liquidity is a tailwind—don’t rush to treat it as the starting point of a cutting cycle.

In US stocks, $BTC risk assets are all rising.