The US unemployment rate has been under 5% only 37% of the time since 1948.
But in the last decade? Over 83% of the time.
In the entire 1980s, it never once dropped below 5%.
This isn't normal. It's exceptional. And maybe fragile.
We've been spoiled by a tight labor market for so long that sub-5% unemployment feels like the baseline. It's not. Historically, it's an outlier.
The danger isn't that things are bad now. It's that people have forgotten what normal looks like — and built their plans, spending habits, and risk appetite around conditions that may not last.
When the cycle turns, the adjustment will hurt more than it should, because no one's positioned for it.
But in the last decade? Over 83% of the time.
In the entire 1980s, it never once dropped below 5%.
This isn't normal. It's exceptional. And maybe fragile.
We've been spoiled by a tight labor market for so long that sub-5% unemployment feels like the baseline. It's not. Historically, it's an outlier.
The danger isn't that things are bad now. It's that people have forgotten what normal looks like — and built their plans, spending habits, and risk appetite around conditions that may not last.
When the cycle turns, the adjustment will hurt more than it should, because no one's positioned for it.