The nonfarm report has been released, following the plan

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The nonfarm report has been released, following the plan described earlier as Option A. This is arguably the best data for the current stage: employment numbers have fallen sharply, the unemployment rate has risen, wage growth has slowed, and this further constrains the Fed’s policy space for hiking rates.

This data not only weakens the odds of a rate hike in October, but also directly reduces the likelihood of a hike in December and any continued hikes in 2026.

This report is bearish for the US dollar, bullish for risk assets, bullish for gold, and bullish for US Treasuries—it's very good data for the current phase! #比特币站上8.6万美元涨2.99%

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Will August’s PCE pull down the probability of an October rate hike, and will September’s nonfarm payrolls bring the probability of an October rate hike back up?

Will August’s PCE pull down the probability of an October rate hike, and will September’s nonfarm payrolls bring the probability of an October rate hike back up?

As of now, the probability of a rate hike in October is 23.8%, and in December it is 63.4%. Although expectations for rate hikes have been pushed back, strictly speaking, the probabilities for rate hikes are still in an uncertain stage #比特币升至8.5万美元附近

For the market, an expected pace of rate hikes is not scary. What’s scary is an uncertain path of rate hikes—it will make the market unwilling to price things in advance. That’s why tonight’s big nonfarm payrolls data is so important.

As of this month, the predicted range for the nonfarm payrolls data is 35k–180k. Currently, most expectations cluster in the 84k–90k range, while the prior value of 162k for August had previously been widely attributed by many economists to seasonal factors amplifying the figure.

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