🔥 19:30 tonight — US September Nonfarm Payrolls!
Markets don’t just care whether jobs are rising or falling—they care even more about:
After the Nonfarm report, how hawkish will the Fed stay?
Current expectations:
New jobs: about 84K–90K
Unemployment rate: 4.1%
YoY wage growth: about 3.2%
Compared with 162K in August, the market has clearly expected job growth to slow down.
I’ll watch 3 scenarios:
① Nonfarm stronger than expected
If jobs are >100K, unemployment falls, and wages stay high → expectations for a more hawkish Fed could increase, putting pressure on the USD and US yields to rise.
→ BTC/ETH could be sold off hard in the short term.
But don’t chase FOMO Shorts. The key is still whether BTC can hold support.
② Data close to expectations
Jobs around 80K–90K, unemployment at 4.1%, and wages are not surprising.
→ The market may not react too strongly; BTC/ETH can continue following the current structure.
BTC: 82K–83K support | 85K–87K resistance
ETH: 2,600–2,660 support | 2,750–2,820 resistance
③ Nonfarm weaker than expected
Jobs fall sharply, unemployment rises, and wage growth cools → expectations for easing could return.
→ This environment could be more positive for BTC/ETH, especially if price simultaneously breaks above resistance.
So tonight I’m not calling the data in advance.
I’ll follow in this order:
Nonfarm → USD & yields → BTC/ETH reaction.
Remember this:
Bad data doesn’t necessarily mean price will fall.
Good data doesn’t necessarily mean price will rise.
Most important:
How the market trades that data.
If tonight’s volatility is too strong, I’d rather wait for the first pullback to finish, then see whether it’s a real breakout or a false breakout.
Before Nonfarm, don’t guess.
After Nonfarm, wait for price confirmation.
Markets don’t just care whether jobs are rising or falling—they care even more about:
After the Nonfarm report, how hawkish will the Fed stay?
Current expectations:
New jobs: about 84K–90K
Unemployment rate: 4.1%
YoY wage growth: about 3.2%
Compared with 162K in August, the market has clearly expected job growth to slow down.
I’ll watch 3 scenarios:
① Nonfarm stronger than expected
If jobs are >100K, unemployment falls, and wages stay high → expectations for a more hawkish Fed could increase, putting pressure on the USD and US yields to rise.
→ BTC/ETH could be sold off hard in the short term.
But don’t chase FOMO Shorts. The key is still whether BTC can hold support.
② Data close to expectations
Jobs around 80K–90K, unemployment at 4.1%, and wages are not surprising.
→ The market may not react too strongly; BTC/ETH can continue following the current structure.
BTC: 82K–83K support | 85K–87K resistance
ETH: 2,600–2,660 support | 2,750–2,820 resistance
③ Nonfarm weaker than expected
Jobs fall sharply, unemployment rises, and wage growth cools → expectations for easing could return.
→ This environment could be more positive for BTC/ETH, especially if price simultaneously breaks above resistance.
So tonight I’m not calling the data in advance.
I’ll follow in this order:
Nonfarm → USD & yields → BTC/ETH reaction.
Remember this:
Bad data doesn’t necessarily mean price will fall.
Good data doesn’t necessarily mean price will rise.
Most important:
How the market trades that data.
If tonight’s volatility is too strong, I’d rather wait for the first pullback to finish, then see whether it’s a real breakout or a false breakout.
Before Nonfarm, don’t guess.
After Nonfarm, wait for price confirmation.