Bitcoin (BTC) strengthened abruptly at the start of October. After large sell orders that had been sitting around the $85,000 area were broken through, the next liquidity battleground in the market quickly shifted upward to above $87,000.
As of October 2, BTC briefly rose to $86,857, the highest level since September 23. It’s currently around $86,300. CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, BTC short liquidations have exceeded $122 million, while total liquidations across the entire crypto market are about $210 million.
At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another net inflow of $102.7 million on the first trading day of October, setting a positive tone for the market’s so-called “Uptober.”
The $85,000 sell wall has been eaten, and liquidity has moved up to $87,000
Earlier this week, bitcoin has been pushed down and kept around $85,000.
Glassnode points out that the exchange order book had previously accumulated a large amount of sell-side liquidity (ask liquidity) above $85,000, and at one point, there were sell orders exceeding $30 million around $85,700, becoming the most obvious short-term resistance for BTC.
However, the latest market data shows that the buying side has successfully absorbed this batch of sell orders. Glassnode says that the sell-side liquidity above $85,000 has dropped significantly, meaning resistance above has temporarily thinned out; theoretically, upward movement can become faster.
As a result, market attention has shifted from the $85,000 resistance level to the liquidation zone between $87,000 and $87,300.
CoinGlass’s liquidation heatmap shows that after BTC broke above $85,000, the new potential liquidation liquidity has concentrated above $87,300. In other words, the market’s “magnetic pull” positions are moving upward.
$122 million worth of shorts squeezed out, and this rally also has a squeeze component
BTC quickly broke above $85,000 while triggering the closeout of a large number of short positions. As of the time of statistics, the total amount of liquidated bitcoin shorts over the past 24 hours was about $122 million; across the entire crypto market during the same period, about $210 million in positions were liquidated. This suggests that this rally was driven not only by spot buying, but also by short squeezes.
After the price breaks through the original dense sell-order area, some bets that BTC would fail to break above $85,000 are forced to cover their shorts, creating additional buy orders and pushing the price even higher.
Therefore, BTC rapidly surged from $85,000 to $87,000, and it has the classic structure of “breakout resistance → short liquidations → forced buybacks → prices rising again.”
ETF “Uptober” first day attracts $103 million again
More important than derivatives liquidation is still whether spot capital can catch up.
SoSoValue and Farside Investors data show that U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $102.7 million on October 1, reversing the previous trading day’s net outflow of $148.7 million. The largest single fund, BlackRock’s IBIT, had a net inflow of about $195 million, but some other ETFs saw capital outflows. As a result, the overall market’s final net inflow was about $103 million.
At present, the total assets of U.S. spot BTC ETFs are about $109.3 billion, with cumulative net inflows of about $57.6 billion. This means that on the first trading day of October, institutional capital is back on the buy side.
Q3 ETFs pull in $6.34 billion; BTC jumps 42.7% in the same period
Looking at a longer timeframe, ETF demand has already clearly rebounded. In Q3, the total net inflow of U.S. spot BTC ETFs was about $6.34 billion, with September alone contributing roughly $2.65 billion; meanwhile, BTC’s price rose about 42.7% in the same quarter.
This has prompted the market to start discussing the traditional “Uptober” narrative again. However, it’s still too early to say the next round of breakout has been confirmed just because ETFs saw renewed inflows on the first day of October.
Glassnode reminds that the pace of ETF inflows in recent days has clearly cooled compared with late September. On September 21, the single-day net ETF inflow briefly approached $999 million, a near 11-month high; by contrast, the current daily funding scale of around $100 million still remains far smaller.
So what the market is truly lacking right now is whether ETF capital can return to an inflow rate of several hundred million dollars per day—or even close to $1 billion.
$86,000 has another key meaning: the average cost line for ETF investors
Glassnode notes that around $86,000 is also the aggregate breakeven level for overall investors in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.
This makes the current area especially important. If BTC can hold steadily above $86,000, it suggests that overall ETF holders have returned to the average profit zone, which can help reduce sell pressure from previously trapped positions.
But if the price falls back below $86,000 again, some of the ETF capital that entered recently may return to being in floating losses, which could also increase short-term profit-taking and redemption pressure. Currently, $86,000 is not only a technical level—it is also an important cost line for institutional capital.
As of the latest update on October 2, BTC is around $86,300, with a nearly 3% gain over the past 24 hours; during the day, the high has already risen to $86,857.
The market can now be simplified into three price zones:
$85,000: the large sell-order zone has already been broken
$86,000: the overall average profit/loss breakeven zone for U.S. spot ETFs
$87,000 to $87,300: the latest liquidation liquidity begins to concentrate here, and this is also the next short-term battleground for bulls and bears
If BTC further breaks above $87,300, the short positions above may trigger another round of cascading liquidations, accelerating the move higher. But if it fails to break out, some of the gains driven by short covering today could also quickly retrace.
The biggest positive change in the market right now is that two signals appear at the same time: the $85,000 sell-wall on the order book has been broken, and ETFs have turned back to net inflows. This is healthier than price surging sharply driven purely by high leverage.
But Glassnode believes that to truly confirm a broader upward trend for BTC, we still need to see the price continuing to break higher, trading volume increasing, and ETF net inflows clearly accelerating again.
While today’s $103 million net ETF inflow is good news, it is still a considerable distance from the nearly $1 billion demand seen on September 21. “Uptober” has had a solid first day, but the true confirmation signal has not fully appeared yet.
“Bitcoin breaks through the $85,000 sell wall! ETF ‘Uptober’ attracts $103 million on day one; the next battle between bulls and bears moves to $87,000” — This article was first published on (Block Chance).