#随着10月加息预期降温美国非农就业报告即将公布 The market has significantly lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in October. The market is currently waiting for the U.S. September non-farm payrolls report. This data is a key labor-market indicator ahead of the Fed’s October policy meeting. Market expectations are for around 90,000 new jobs. We should focus on the number of新增, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and whether the August employment data is revised downward.
Positives: 1. If non-farm payrolls come in below expectations and wage growth slows, it will further suppress the rate-hike probability. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar may weaken, benefiting risk assets such as U.S. equities, gold, and crypto; 2. Confirmation that the jobs market is cooling, indicating economic slowdown, will strengthen expectations that Fed rates have peaked and boost market risk appetite; 3. Some of the benefit from the earlier cooling of rate-hike expectations has already been priced in. If the data disappoints, it could trigger additional long positioning by funds.
Negatives: 1. If non-farm payrolls significantly beat expectations and wages rise, it will quickly push up the October rate-hike probability. Treasury yields could rebound, weighing on all risk assets; 2. Even if the data meets expectations, it would likely only maintain current pricing, with limited incremental upside; 3. Ahead of and around the data release, implied volatility in the futures market tends to rise, increasing the risk of short-term spikes and liquidation cascades.
Outlook: If the data is below expectations, risk assets may rise; if it is stronger than expected, a rapid pullback may occur. Key indicators to watch: non-farm payrolls added, year-over-year change in hourly earnings, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the U.S. Dollar Index.
Positives: 1. If non-farm payrolls come in below expectations and wage growth slows, it will further suppress the rate-hike probability. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar may weaken, benefiting risk assets such as U.S. equities, gold, and crypto; 2. Confirmation that the jobs market is cooling, indicating economic slowdown, will strengthen expectations that Fed rates have peaked and boost market risk appetite; 3. Some of the benefit from the earlier cooling of rate-hike expectations has already been priced in. If the data disappoints, it could trigger additional long positioning by funds.
Negatives: 1. If non-farm payrolls significantly beat expectations and wages rise, it will quickly push up the October rate-hike probability. Treasury yields could rebound, weighing on all risk assets; 2. Even if the data meets expectations, it would likely only maintain current pricing, with limited incremental upside; 3. Ahead of and around the data release, implied volatility in the futures market tends to rise, increasing the risk of short-term spikes and liquidation cascades.
Outlook: If the data is below expectations, risk assets may rise; if it is stronger than expected, a rapid pullback may occur. Key indicators to watch: non-farm payrolls added, year-over-year change in hourly earnings, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the U.S. Dollar Index.