Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls are coming. Wall Street consensus is for an increase of 84,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The market is more optimistic in its outlook, with a nearly 60% chance of an increase of over 90,000.
This data is crucial because it directly steers the Fed’s hand. Earlier, the PCE was moderate, and officials kept skipping—markets have already pushed the pricing for a rate hike in October down from 50% to 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged has risen to 75.6%. If tonight’s new jobs number is clearly stronger than expected, the rationale for a rate hike will be lifted again, which is a short-term drag on risk assets. If it’s weaker, the dovish case will have more confidence.
So what the market really wants is a report that’s “solid but not too hot.” For crypto—an asset class that is most sensitive to liquidity—what matters more than the single month’s data is the loosening of expectations for the interest-rate path. Let tonight’s volatility play out first. $ETH
#非农 #美联储 #流动性
This data is crucial because it directly steers the Fed’s hand. Earlier, the PCE was moderate, and officials kept skipping—markets have already pushed the pricing for a rate hike in October down from 50% to 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged has risen to 75.6%. If tonight’s new jobs number is clearly stronger than expected, the rationale for a rate hike will be lifted again, which is a short-term drag on risk assets. If it’s weaker, the dovish case will have more confidence.
So what the market really wants is a report that’s “solid but not too hot.” For crypto—an asset class that is most sensitive to liquidity—what matters more than the single month’s data is the loosening of expectations for the interest-rate path. Let tonight’s volatility play out first. $ETH
#非农 #美联储 #流动性
