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Bitcoin gave up the gains that pushed it above the $85,500 level after the release of inflation data, trading near $83,500, according to Jeff Co of ViaBTC. Meanwhile, analysts believe the $82,000 level is the main support zone as the market enters October.
Jeff Co, head analyst at ViaBTC, and Laicy Zhang, head of research at Bitget Wallet, told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s performance during October will depend heavily on institutional demand and U.S. economic data. They both agreed that the $82,000 level represents a key support point.
Bitcoin rose by more than 2% shortly after the release of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, briefly breaking above $85,500 before giving back those gains.
Zhang expects bitcoin to trade in a range of $78,000 to $95,000 in October, provided demand remains resilient against risks from inflation and interest rates.
Support at $82,000 for bitcoin sits near the liquidation zones for leveraged positions
Ko said the $82,000 level matters because liquidation pools become denser below it. For her part, Zhang identifies the key liquidation zone between $82,000 and $82,500, warning that losing this area could accelerate bitcoin’s fall toward $80,000.
Earlier CoinGlass data had shown similar concentration of leveraged positions. A report published on September 29 indicated a dense liquidation range around $82,300–$82,600, along with another cluster near $85,400–$85,700 above the current price.
Under Zhang’s bullish scenario, bitcoin must hold at $82,000 and reclaim $87,500 before a move toward $95,000 becomes possible.
She also sees that a break above $87,500 could increase the odds of a “short squeeze,” while continued declines below $80,000 would invalidate the seasonal bullish scenario she expects.
Although October has historically been one of bitcoin’s more favorable months, Zhang warned against treating seasonality alone as sufficient reason to expect higher prices.
Zhang, head of research, estimates bitcoin’s historical average return during October at about 11% to 14%. She believes that ETF inflows, reduced coin balances on exchanges, and corporate buying support the bullish scenario, while higher oil prices, rising interest rates, and renewed inflation pressures are the main obstacles to this scenario.
ETF fund buying supports demand but does not guarantee bitcoin’s rise
Regarding institutional activity, Zhang said that about $2.4 billion flowed into U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds over the past week, before inflows slowed sharply to $31.1 million of net daily inflows on September 28.
It also said that Strategy bought an additional 1,665 bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 847,666 bitcoins.
Zhang believes the key question is whether new institutional buying can absorb long-term profit-taking by bitcoin holders, along with miners’ selling.
In her assessment, the balance between buying and selling matters more than the total size of any single buy order.
In his view, Ko said that flows of $2.3 billion went into bitcoin funds and $644 million into ethereum funds over the period since last week. He described ETF fund flows as positive, despite bitcoin failing to hold onto the gains that followed the PCE data.
During the September rally, U.S. spot bitcoin funds received inflows of $999 million on September 21 and $714.7 million on September 22, according to Bitfinex data cited in a report published on September 24 about ETF fund purchases and leverage.
In the same report, BTCS S.A. strategy advisor Vojciech Kazitski said spot purchases supported the first stage of the upswing before leveraged positions began accumulating.
Kazitski said that ongoing subscriptions for ETF funds and purchases by companies or through the over-the-counter (OTC) market would be necessary to support bitcoin’s move above $90,000.
She also warned that investors who bought bitcoin between $90,000 and $110,000 last year may choose to sell when the price returns to their buy levels.
Below-expected PCE data reduces expectations for an October rate hike
According to Ko, the headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while the core index increased 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year.
The two annual readings came in below the expectations cited by Ko—3.7% for headline inflation and 3.3% for core inflation.
Despite the declines, Ko attributed a large portion of the gap to adjustments related to the data-calculation methodology, rather than viewing it as clear evidence that price pressures are easing.
In his assessment, inflation data looked more tempered on the surface, but it did not prove that inflation has slowed by as much.
However, the odds of a rate hike in October fell to 38.2%, compared with 70.9% a week earlier, according to the figures cited by Ko.
In contrast, Ko put the market-implied probability of a rate hike in December at 86%.
Zhang’s baseline scenario includes a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 28, which would lift the target range to 4.00%–4.25%.
Zhang linked this outlook to inflation staying above 3% and renewed pressures stemming from energy prices.
In an assessment published on September 29 on the likelihood of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve, HashKey Group’s chief researcher, Tim Sun, warned that an October rate hike could prompt investors to view the September hike as the start of a recurring cycle of monetary tightening.
The same report showed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, reaching a range of 3.75%–4.00%.
For Americans who hold bitcoin directly or via spot bitcoin funds, Sun identified Treasury yields, fund flows, and leverage in derivatives as key factors affecting the market.
He said that higher long-term interest rates and tighter dollar liquidity could weigh on demand.
Jobs and inflation data will test interest-rate expectations as leverage falls
Before the release of the anticipated economic data, Zhang said leverage in the derivatives market had declined, but not fully disappeared.
It indicated that the funding rate for perpetual bitcoin contracts on Binance was around 0.0068%, versus a seven-day average of about 0.0023%, and described traders’ positioning as positive, though not at excessive levels.
Open interest was around $7.7 billion, down by roughly 16% over the week, according to Zhang.
She believes that this pullback reduced the risk of a broad wave of forced liquidations in the market.
On the economic front, Ko noted that the yield on U.S. Treasury 10-year notes is nearing 5.2%, while the price of crude oil has exceeded $100.
The analysts cited the U.S. jobs report for September, due on October 2, and the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on October 14, as among the most important expected economic data.
Zhang said that a notably weaker jobs report—especially if it coincides with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth—could increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve pauses further rate hikes.
By contrast, continued strength in the labor market and the release of another elevated inflation reading could support a rate hike. Zhang expects this to weigh on the crypto market through higher real yields and a stronger dollar.
Ethereum shows relative strength versus bitcoin
Away from bitcoin, Ko said that ethereum has shown relative strength versus bitcoin over the past three months.
Ko believes a clear break of the ETH/BTC ratio above 0.032 would be necessary before this relative strength can be considered a confirmed trend.
Later in the month, Zhang’s agenda includes the initial reading of U.S. third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29.
She expects this data to affect December interest-rate price expectations, since it will be released after the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October.$NVDAB
