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Tonight 21:30 US Employment Report
Market expectation +90k, but maybe slightly stronger?
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Tonight at 21:30, it’s the US September employment statistics
The market’s forecast is roughly
“Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) +90k-ish”
However, looking at the overall mood on X right before the release, it’s not an entirely bearish consensus. You can somewhat see a view that goes like “The base case is around +90k, but there’s a possibility it won’t be that weak.”
The forecasts commonly being seen this time look like this👇
🔶 Market forecast 🔶
🔹 NFP: around +85k to +90k
🔹 Unemployment rate: 4.1%
🔹 Average hourly earnings: +0.3% month-over-month
🔹 Prior (August): +162k → this time expected to slow down
🔶 Mood on X 🔶
🔹 Voices centered on assuming around 90k in line with consensus
🔹 Extremely bearish expectations are somewhat fewer
🔹 Based on ADP, unemployment insurance claims, and ISM employment, some think there may be a slightly stronger outcome
🔶 Prediction market 🔶
🔹 100k–150k: 37%
🔹 50k–100k: 34%
→ Roughly speaking, the weight is a bit on the upper side compared to consensus
And even before the release, BTC has already risen to the $86,000s.
In internal data around 18:00,
🔹 Spot CVD is trending upward
🔹 Short liquidations are dominant
🔹 OI is also increasing
This gives the impression that positioning has already started to tilt a bit ahead of the release.
The key point tonight isn’t just “how many tens of thousands”
🔸 Whether it’s stronger than expected
🔸 Whether it’s weaker than expected
🔸 And how the market interprets the result
That may be the most important.
If it’s strong, then rates and the dollar rise, which is more of a headwind for BTC
If it’s weak, then rates fall, which becomes more of a tailwind for BTC
However, if it’s too weak, concerns about the economy may come into play as well—so it’s not as simple as “weak = everything is good.”
Tonight, you’ll want to look at these three points together:
employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings
#US Employment Report #BTC #USDJPY
Tonight 21:30 US Employment Report
Market expectation +90k, but maybe slightly stronger?
□━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━■
Tonight at 21:30, it’s the US September employment statistics
The market’s forecast is roughly
“Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) +90k-ish”
However, looking at the overall mood on X right before the release, it’s not an entirely bearish consensus. You can somewhat see a view that goes like “The base case is around +90k, but there’s a possibility it won’t be that weak.”
The forecasts commonly being seen this time look like this👇
🔶 Market forecast 🔶
🔹 NFP: around +85k to +90k
🔹 Unemployment rate: 4.1%
🔹 Average hourly earnings: +0.3% month-over-month
🔹 Prior (August): +162k → this time expected to slow down
🔶 Mood on X 🔶
🔹 Voices centered on assuming around 90k in line with consensus
🔹 Extremely bearish expectations are somewhat fewer
🔹 Based on ADP, unemployment insurance claims, and ISM employment, some think there may be a slightly stronger outcome
🔶 Prediction market 🔶
🔹 100k–150k: 37%
🔹 50k–100k: 34%
→ Roughly speaking, the weight is a bit on the upper side compared to consensus
And even before the release, BTC has already risen to the $86,000s.
In internal data around 18:00,
🔹 Spot CVD is trending upward
🔹 Short liquidations are dominant
🔹 OI is also increasing
This gives the impression that positioning has already started to tilt a bit ahead of the release.
The key point tonight isn’t just “how many tens of thousands”
🔸 Whether it’s stronger than expected
🔸 Whether it’s weaker than expected
🔸 And how the market interprets the result
That may be the most important.
If it’s strong, then rates and the dollar rise, which is more of a headwind for BTC
If it’s weak, then rates fall, which becomes more of a tailwind for BTC
However, if it’s too weak, concerns about the economy may come into play as well—so it’s not as simple as “weak = everything is good.”
Tonight, you’ll want to look at these three points together:
employment, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings
#US Employment Report #BTC #USDJPY
