Bitcoin (BTC) rose by about 42% over the past three months, in an uptrend that has led some analysts to believe the bear market is over and that the coin could target new all-time highs in the next cycle.
But the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November may add a new factor to the market equation, amid fears that historical patterns saw strong pullbacks in Bitcoin after the previous elections.
Historically: what happened after the elections?
The U.S. midterm elections are held on November 3, 2026, where voters elect all members of the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate.
Its results could also change the composition of Congress, and thus affect the ability of President "Donald Trump" to pass legislation and set policies.
Analyst "Ali Martinez" pointed to historical data showing that the price of Bitcoin saw major declines after the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, with the declines reaching 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% respectively.
However, the same analyst stressed that this data does not prove that the elections caused those declines, but rather indicates a historical pattern worth tracking before the November 3 elections.
Fourth-quarter data also shows a mixed pattern: Bitcoin rose by about 400% in the fourth quarter of 2010, but recorded losses of 16.7% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022.
Will the scenario repeat in 2026?
Analyst "Martinez" believes the $73,000 level could be important if the historical pattern repeats, as it is close to the average cost basis of short-term Bitcoin holders.
At the same time, these data do not necessarily mean that the elections will inevitably lead to a downturn.
The same analyst also noted the possibility that Bitcoin could rise to around $100,000 in late October before the elections, followed by a subsequent correction.
October remains another factor in the equation, as it historically has been one of Bitcoin's strong months. The coin finished 10 of the last 13 October months in the green, which earned the month the nickname "Uptober".
Therefore, the market may see a mix of seasonal momentum in October and election-related volatility in November, but historical data alone is not enough to determine the next direction for Bitcoin.
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