Bitcoin Breaks Above $85,000: Let’s Talk About the Factors Supporting the Rebound.
As of early morning in the U.S. East on October 2, BTC briefly reached around $86,600, up about 3.1% over the past 24 hours.
After falling below $83,000 in late September, the market later regained the level above $85,000. Sentiment clearly eased.
1) The first support actually comes from inflation.
U.S. August PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, below the 0.4% expected; core PCE came in at 3.0% year-over-year. The data isn’t weak, but it’s milder than what the market feared, cooling expectations for additional rate hikes in October.
2) On the other side, ETF money is still flowing in.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $2.65 billion in September, one of the best months in the past year. On October 1, they recorded another net inflow of $102.7 million, suggesting that institutional capital returning to the market after the quarter-end hasn’t stopped immediately.
3) But you can’t look at only the positives right now.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields recently surged to around 5.34%, and the U.S. dollar index also climbed to a 17-month high. High interest rates and a strong dollar are generally not an environment BTC likes.
So if BTC can reclaim $85,000, it at least indicates that spot buying and ETF inflows are providing support.
4) Next, the key thing to watch is the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls.
The market expects about 90,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. If employment doesn’t re-heat, pressure for rate hikes in October can continue to move lower.
Conversely, if the data is too strong—if Treasury yields rise again—BTC near $87,000 will still face pressure.
The next hurdle will be around the September high, near $87.4k.
#比特币升至8.5万美元附近
As of early morning in the U.S. East on October 2, BTC briefly reached around $86,600, up about 3.1% over the past 24 hours.
After falling below $83,000 in late September, the market later regained the level above $85,000. Sentiment clearly eased.
1) The first support actually comes from inflation.
U.S. August PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, below the 0.4% expected; core PCE came in at 3.0% year-over-year. The data isn’t weak, but it’s milder than what the market feared, cooling expectations for additional rate hikes in October.
2) On the other side, ETF money is still flowing in.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $2.65 billion in September, one of the best months in the past year. On October 1, they recorded another net inflow of $102.7 million, suggesting that institutional capital returning to the market after the quarter-end hasn’t stopped immediately.
3) But you can’t look at only the positives right now.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields recently surged to around 5.34%, and the U.S. dollar index also climbed to a 17-month high. High interest rates and a strong dollar are generally not an environment BTC likes.
So if BTC can reclaim $85,000, it at least indicates that spot buying and ETF inflows are providing support.
4) Next, the key thing to watch is the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls.
The market expects about 90,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. If employment doesn’t re-heat, pressure for rate hikes in October can continue to move lower.
Conversely, if the data is too strong—if Treasury yields rise again—BTC near $87,000 will still face pressure.
The next hurdle will be around the September high, near $87.4k.
#比特币升至8.5万美元附近
